Match preview – West Ham v Arsenal
Sunday May 10, KO 4.30pm – Sky Sports Main Event
Saka’s Timely Return to Fitness
Arsenal are back on track in the race for the Premier League title. With Man City dropping points at Everton last Sunday, they are now five points ahead of their title rivals with three games to play, although City still have four to play.
A return to fitness for Bukayo Saka has certainly helped Arsenal’s cause. In the 134 minutes he has played since returning from injury he has scored two goals and got one assist.
The Gunners have rediscovered their form, with three wins from their last four matches, one of which came in the Champions League, the other two in the league. Also, they have kept three clean sheets in those games, the other game ending 1-1 (v Atletico Madrid in the Champions League).
A first Premier League title since the 2003/04 season is in their sights, and they also have a Champions League final to look forward to versus PSG in the Puskás Aréna in Budapest on May 30th.
They have lost just five games in the Premier League all season, in which their away record is nine wins and five draws from 17 matches, with 27 goals scored and 17 conceded. It is the best in the league this season. They will travel to West Ham on Sunday.
Hammers Fighting for their Lives
Arsenal’s city rivals are fighting to avoid relegation. They will go into the match in 18th position in the table, which is a relegation spot. Tottenham are just one point and one place above them, and they have both played 35 games and have three to play.
Tottenham will not play until Monday night, at 8pm, when Leeds will be the visitors to the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
West Ham’s home record in the league this season is, played 17, won five, drawn four and lost eight, with 24 goals scored and 29 conceded.
They are, however, unbeaten in their last five home league games, winning the last two: 2-1 v Everton and 4-0 v Wolves. They are scrapping for their lives and have kept two clean sheets in those five games and haven’t conceded more than one goal in any of them.
Conversely, Arsenal have scored more than one goal in a match just once in their last ten (all comps), which came in last week’s 3-0 home win against Fulham. In those ten matches, they have kept five clean sheets.
In all competitions, West Ham are unbeaten at home in their last nine games but have kept only two clean sheets in those games.
POTENTIAL GOALSCORERS
We flagged him up last week and he served us well: Viktor Gyökeres has now scored 13 goals in his last 22 matches for Arsenal (all comps), only 15 of which he has started.
Bukayo Saka has scored in each of Arsenal’s last two games. Furthermore, he has a career-best total of nine goal contributions against West Ham, with five goals and four assists.
For West Ham, there have been ten different scorers (including own goals chipping in with two) in their last 14 home league games, with the main contributors being Tomáš Souček (4), Jarrod Bowen (3) and Konstantinos Mavropanos (3), with his goals coming in the Hammers’ last two home league games.
The Hammers have failed to score in just three of those 14 games. In eight of the 14 they have scored in the first half.
Finally, Jarrod Bowen has seven assists in his last six home league games.
INJURY NEWS
ARSENAL
Justin Timber remains out with a groin injury, but the signs are that he will return before the end of the season.
Mikel Merino has been out for quite some time with a foot injury but he, too, is closing in on a return to action, although it won’t be this weekend.
WEST HAM
Lukasz Fabianski (back injury) will miss the match.
Pablo (calf), Crysencio Summerville (calf), Ollie Scarles (shoulder) and Niclas Füllkrug (hamstring) remain on the sidelines.
HEAD TO HEADS
The sides have met on 22 occasions this century in the Premier League or Premiership when West Ham were the home side.
Arsenal’s record is W12, D7, L3, F50, A25. It is a fixture that often produces goals.
To drill down further, in the last ten of these games, Arsenal have won five and lost just once. In those ten games they have scored 26 goals and conceded 11.
In seven of the ten games, both teams scored, while eight of the ten have produced over 2.5 goals, seven have produced over 3.5 goals, and four have produced over 4.5 goals.
VERDICT
They have rediscovered their form, their confidence is high, and they have an excellent record in this fixture, so it is Arsenal to win again.
This fixture also favours goals, so I’ll go with Arsenal to win 3-1.
He served us well last week, so I’ll stick with Viktor Gyökeres as a first/anytime scorer.
With West Ham having conceded 15 goals from corners this season, Arsenal’s set-piece prowess is worth bearing in mind. Gabriel Magalhães at 6/1 is another goalscorer option to consider.
Over 2.5 goals at 4/6 seems reasonable enough, too.
BETTING TIPS
- Match Betting: Arsenal (4/7)
- Correct Score: West Ham 1-3 Arsenal (17/2)
- Both teams to score – Yes: (7/10)
- Over 2.5 Goals: (4/6)
- Goalscorer Bet: Viktor Gyokeres – 4/1 First Goal scorer or 6/5 Anytime.
- Goalscorer Bet: Gabriel Magalhães anytime goalscorer (6/1)
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