2,000 Guineas Preview (Newmarket, Sat, 15:35).
Broadcaster Will Reilly runs his eye over the first Classic of the season.
2,000 Guineas selection – Distant Storm – Charlie Appleby – Charlie has won this Classic three times in the last four years so he knows what it takes to land the prestigious prize; Distant Storm hasn’t run yet this season but won two of his four races last year and finished third in the 7f Group 1 Dewhurst Stakes on his final start, giving the impression that a step up to a mile will suit so that isn’t viewed as an issue; the form of that race is very strong; for example, the fifth, Oxagon has won this season’s Craven Stakes, and the sixth, Alparslan, who may also run in the Guineas, has won the Greenham Stakes, both races being key Classic trials.
For me, he represents value at 9/2 (Guide price); he travelled well for a long way at Newmarket last time and seemed to handle its contours well, and stepping up to a mile should suit.
2,000 Guineas Key Runners Guide
Bow Echo – George Boughey – He is unbeaten in three races and has yet to run this year; however, connections have been sounding bullish in recent weeks following reports of him working well at Newmarket; his most recent win came in the Group 2 Royal Lodge Stakes over Saturday’s course and distance
Gstaad – Aidan O’Brien – He was supplemented into the race on Monday (April 27) – He finished second in the 7f Group 1 Dewhurst Stakes last October, where he finished one-and-a-lengths in front of Distant Storm; he then rounded off his season in style by landing the 8f Grade 1 Juvenile Turf at the valuable Breeders’ Cup meeting at Santa Anita in California – At first glance (being by Starspangledbanner out of an Exceed And Excel mare) his pedigree looks more speed-oriented, and indeed his half-brother Vandeek (by Havana Grey) won two Group 1 races over six furlongs – Gstaad did, though, stay a sharp mile in America
Puerto Rico – Aidan O’Brien – He has yet to run this season but has won his last three races, a Group 2 and two Group 1 races; Aidan has won this Classic eleven times, which is a record; if he runs, he has to be afforded respect, as does Gstaad, of course; Puerto Rico’s grand-dam has produced excellent horses like Misty For Me (a 4-time Group 1 winner, including the Irish 1,000 Guineas) and 2yo Group 1 winner Ballydoyle
King’s Trail – Like Distant Storm, he is trained by Charlie Appleby; he is unbeaten in two runs, both of which have been on the all-weather surface at Kempton and he has yet to run in a stakes race; he is promising but Saturday represents a big step up in class; he is by Sea The Stars and his dam won a Group 3 race over nine furlongs; his grand-dam has produced nine winners, with Groups 1, 2 and 3 winners among them
Oxagon – John and Thady Gosden – He finished fifth in last season’s Dewhurst Stakes (see Distant Storm above) but returned this season in the Craven Stakes, which he won; it may not have been the strongest renewal of the Craven, but he made all for a pretty comfortable win so deserves a lot of credit; he is by Frankel out of a Dubawi mare and his grand-dam won at Group 3 level
Avicenna – Roger Varian – He finished second to Oxagon in the Craven Stakes last time out and won at Listed level last season; he cost 450,000 guineas as a yearling and is by Starspangledbanner out of a Galileo mare that won a maiden at Dundalk; he is owned by Godophin but is trained by Roger Varian
Samangan – Francis-Henri Graffard – A possible French challenger that has won Group 2 and 3 races over 6f; he finished second in a Group 3 race on his seasonal return when sent off as the 11/10 favourite; that was over seven furlongs and Saturday will see him race over one mile for the first time; he’s by Blue Point but his dam and grand-dam both won over 10 furlongs; the question is whether his form is strong enough to play a part
Alparslan – Karl Burke – With Karl Burke colts, you just know that, physically, they will be strong with plenty of scope; having won a 6.5f valuable Sales race at the Curragh last September, he then finished sixth in the Dewhurst Stakes, where he finished behind Gstaad, Distant Storm and Oxagon; however, on his first run this season he won the Greenham Stakes at Newbury, one of the key 2,000 Guineas trials; that was a good performance and he is clearly progressive but this will be tougher; he has yet to run over the distance of one mile
Thesecretadversary – Fozzy Stack – He progressed last season, rounding off the campaign by finishing fifth, beaten 2.5 lengths, in a Grade 1 contest over 8f in Canada, and returned in good style this season by landing the 7f Group 3 Ballylinch Stud Red Rocks Stakes at Leopardstown on April 12th – The way he finished off at Leopardstown suggested that a mile will be no problem for him at Newmarket and a good run would be no surprise
The rest of the field are 25/1 or bigger.
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