LOI Betting Column Oct 2-5
It’s a busy week across all fronts as both Shelbourne and Shamrock Rovers begin their respective UEFA Conference League campaigns on Thursday night before the Hoops host Kerry FC in the FAI Cup semi-finals on Sunday.
Meanwhile, there are two crucial LOI Premier Division matches on Friday evening, a night which could also see the LOI First Division title race decided.
With all of these games in mind, LOI TV Commentator Kieran Burke is back to deliver his best bets for an action packed week. The host of Between the Stripes LOI podcast is currently a level-stakes profit of +€6.01 for the year.
Shelbourne v Hacken, Thur, 8.00, Premier Sports
History will be made at Tallaght Stadium on Thursday as Shelbourne play their first-ever European group/league phase game against Swedish side Hacken. The visitors do not have happy memories of their most recent trip to Ireland as they were beaten and dumped out of Europa League qualifying by Cork City at Turners Cross in the 2016-17 campaign.
Given Shelbourne were still a second-tier side as recently as 2021, they naturally aren’t blessed with huge amounts of recent European experience but this will only be Hacken’s second appearance in Europe proper with the Swedes losing all three of their Europa League group matches in 2023/24.
While all of this information will give Shelbourne fans hope of getting off to a positive start, Hacken’s 7-2 aggregate win in the play-off round against Romanian side Cluj is a reminder that this is a step up for the League of Ireland champions.
I will counter my own argument though by pointing out that Cluj are having a very poor start to the season in Romania. Shelbourne haven’t exactly had a stellar domestic campaign of their own with Joey O’Brien admitting recently that their non-defence of the title won under Damien Duff last season has been a disappointment.
However, recent form is at least encouraging with just one defeat in their last six games in all competitions. Shelbourne comfortably dispatched Linfield in the previous round with their performance on the bigger pitch at Windsor Park particularly impressive.
While many will view Shelbourne as having to play their home European matches away from Tolka Park as a negative, the far greater surface at Tallaght Stadium should suit players like Harry Wood down to the ground.
The English midfielder, who famously scored the late goal in Derry on the final day last season to deliver Shels a first league title in almost two decades, has been in immense form of late with five goals across the last six matches.
Hacken have also had a below-par league campaign with just 8 wins from 25 Allsvenskan matches and 12 defeats leaving them 10th in a 16-team division. Shelbourne will and should be targeting some sort of points return here.
BEST BET: Shelbourne Draw No Bet @ 9/5 +1pt
Athlone Town v Dundalk, Fri, 7.45, LOI TV
Dundalk FC can effectively win the title here with a convincing victory away to the league’s basement side. With just three games remaining the Lilywhites are six points clear of Cobh Ramblers, who they travel to on the final day, but with Dundalk also six goals better off than Cobh, a comprehensive score line here would kill off any prospect of a meaningful final day fixture.
Ciaran Kilduff’s team shouldn’t be complacent either, they were taught a lesson on that front by Longford recently, and to be fair to Athlone, while they continue to struggle at the foot of the table there have been some small signs of encouragement in recent matches.
Athlone Town are 20 games without a win in all competitions, their last win coming all the way back in early May. The Westmeath men have lost eight of their last nine games but an unlucky late defeat in Limerick, a point at home to Kerry and another unlucky late defeat against an in-form Wexford last week prove that they can still pose a problem for teams in the upper reaches of the division.
Dundalk have been far from bullet proof of late, they were humbled in Longford and had to survive a scare against UCD last week. However, with captain Daryl Horgan and vice captain Aodh Dervin both returning from respective injury and suspension last week, they can now have no excuses not to finish the job and secure automatic promotion.
The Louth outfit beat Athlone Town 6-1 just a couple of months ago but they did drop points in the Midlands in May and only scrapped a 1-0 win against Athlone on the first day of the season. Dundalk have also conceded in their last three games with their weakness between the sticks an area of concern. 41 year-old Peter Cherrie was poor for a couple of the goals on Friday but former Athlone keeper Enda Minogue has also struggled for form at times this season.
Local centre-back Mayowa Animasahun missed the UCD game through suspension but it will be interesting to see if he’s immediately restored to the XI after a nightmare performance away to Longford.
Dundalk will win this game, there’s no doubt about that, but Athlone may breach Dundalk’s defence at some point.
BEST BET: Dundalk win & BTTS @ 6/4 +1pt
Cobh Ramblers v Bray Wanderers, Fri, 7.45, LOI TV
Even a Cobh win may only be enough to keep the title race alive in all but name but Ramblers need to keep their foot on the gas with a view to keeping up appearances ahead of a possible tilt at the play-offs. This fixture very well could end up being the First Division play-off final in a few weeks time so this is a chance for both teams to send out a message that they are serious contenders for promotion.
Having watched Bray Wanderers lose at home to Longford last week, I’d be concerned for their prospects at St Colman’s Park. Aside from wanting to put on a positive showing ahead of the play-offs, Bray have little to play for and haven’t really had a carrot to chase for some time now.
It’s difficult to argue that such a lack of motivation probably played a part in their flat display against Longford last week with the Bray manager describing the performance as probably being their worst of the season.
Bray created little to no real chances of note and conceded two very soft goals. That is a concern ahead of a trip to a Cobh team that have scored more goals than everyone bar Dundalk this season. Barry Coffey bagged a hat-trick in last week’s hammering of Finn Harps with the former Celtic man the division’s top scorer with a remarkable 24 goals from midfield.
Ex Cork City striker Cian Murphy is just one goal shy of also bringing up double digits for the campaign. At home, Cobh Ramblers have won an impressive 12 of 16 matches with just two defeats. Despite a strong season, Bray have lost seven times on the road from 16 such matches and could be vulnerable to a tonking here.
BEST BET: Cobh Ramblers -1 @ 15/8 +1pt
Treaty United v Longford Town, Fri, 7.45, LOI TV
Having claimed back-to-back league wins for the first time since June, all of a sudden Longford Town appear as if they may be set for a late dash at the play-offs. With just one defeat in their last five games, De Town have moved to within six points of the top-five with nine points left to play for.
While their horrific goal difference is likely to kill such a play-off push, they can certainly make the last few weeks interesting with victory in Limerick on Friday.
Having gone seven games without a win, Treaty United have staged something of a mini revival themselves in recent weeks with two wins and a draw from their last four games. The latter of those victories was a somewhat fortuitus win against basement boys Athlone while Tommy Barrett’s team needed a late goal to save a point away to Kerry on Friday.
It doesn’t really matter at this stage of the season how you get your points as long as you do claim them but will Treaty’s luck run out against a resurgent Longford?
Personally, I was very surprised to see Longford priced up as large as 3/1 for this fixture given they arrive into the game off the back of two of their best performances of the season, a well earned victory at home to Dundalk and just a second away win of the season against Bray.
One of Longford’s top performances this season before those two wins was the 2-0 win at home to Treaty in August, their second such win in the fixture this season. While they were thumped 5-1 at the Markets Field in May, Longford have come on massively since then as recent results show.
The addition of combative midfielders Sean Moore and Alex O’Brien has brought the best out of Aaron Doran, who is now Longford’s top scorer in the league this season. That energy in the engine room may help Longford to take something back from Shannonside even if it’s not enough to ultimately help them to a play-off place.
BEST BET: Longford Draw No Bet @ 39/20 +1pt
Derry City v Sligo Rovers, Fri, 7.45, LOI TV
Sligo Rovers deserve huge amounts of credit for their current resurgence with the Bit O’Red pulling themselves out of the drop zone and as high as seventh in recent weeks. An unbeaten run of five league matches and back-to-back 1-0 wins has seen John Russell’s men sink Galway United and Waterford FC into the relegation mire.
A really good summer transfer window acted as a catalyst for change at the Showgrounds with the arrival of players such as Jad Hakiki, James McManus, and Paddy McClean transforming Sligo’s fortunes.
There has been plenty of comings and goings at Derry this year, not all as positive as Sligo’s transfer business. Despite sitting as high as second in the league standings, this Derry team have rarely convinced all season. Their current run of just two wins in nine in all competitions has fueled that feeling further.
The Derry faithful themselves don’t seem fully convinced in how new manager Tiernan Lynch has gone about setting up shop at the Brandywell this season, a venue Derry have failed to win at since early July.
Aside from their FAI Cup collapse in Kerry, a unexplainable calamity that Sligo have done well to rebound from so strongly, Rovers have been in good form on the road with three wins in their last four.
Sligo Rovers looked really strong on the counter attack during last week’s win at home to European chasing St.Pat’s and they’ll be fully aware that Derry City often struggle to break down a tightly packed defence.
The Connacht men beat Derry City 2-0 when the sides last met on July 12th and to me, a price of 11/2 for the away side looks incredible value.
BEST BET: Sligo Rovers Double Chance @ 6/4 +1pt
Shamrock Rovers v Kerry FC, Sun, 6.00, RTE 2
St.Patrick’s Athletic (8/11) should get the job done in the first of the FAI Cup semi-finals on Friday night away to Cork City, while the expectation here will be a comfortable Shamrock Rovers victory against First Division side Kerry FC.
The Kingdom produced one of the greatest cup comebacks and upsets ever when they came from 3-0 down to defeat an in-form Sligo Rovers 4-3 AET in the Quarter-Finals and the Kingdom will be dreaming of an even even big giant killing on Sunday.
Shamrock Rovers will be returning from Prague to play this game meaning rotation is likely and Longford Town proved in an earlier round that Rovers can be got at in the absence of their star men. The Hoops were fortunate to receive two penalties against the Midlanders in the last-16 while the league leaders survived a nervy penalty shootout against the Cup holders Drogheda in the previous round.
However, this will be Kerry FC’s first ever trip to Tallaght, their first FAI Cup semi-final and a first appearance on national TV. Even should Kerry manage to hang in there for large periods against the countries best, Rovers can empty their bench as they did against Longford and be almost certain of finding a game changing moment.
Kerry FC have never faced this level of opposition before nor have they graced a stage like this. The Kingdom’s goal will be to keep the scoreline respectable and given their woeful defensive record in the league this season that may even prove to be too stiff a task for the rookies.
PREDICTION: Shamrock Rovers 4-0 Kerry
Awaiting markets…..