One of the most dramatic and turbulent League of Ireland run ins will continue this coming weekend with six of the Premier Divisions ten teams still in with a chance of being crowned Champions in just a few weeks time.
Meanwhile, one of the greatest boom to bust stories of all-time could reach its conclusion this week with the once mighty Dundalk FC potentially set to be relegated to the First Division.
With all that in mind, LOI TV Commentator & host of Between the Stripes LOI podcast, Kieran Burke is here to run his eye over the best bets for the latest round of League of Ireland fixtures.
DUNDALK FC v DERRY CITY – Fri, 7.45, LOI TV
From a run of five league titles in six seasons, multiple cup wins and two separate European group stage odysseys, Dundalk FC are now on the brink of disaster both on and off the pitch. The troubled Lilywhites will be relegated this Friday if they fail to beat title chasing Derry City.
If ever there was a ready made story for a Netflix documentary it has to be Dundalk FC’s incredible rise from the brink of extinction to domestic dominance and European riches only to end up back in the abyss yet again. The clubs future remains uncertain but what is in their control is Friday’s game.
With just nine points left to play for this season, Dundalk FC are eight points adrift of second-bottom side Drogheda United who they play on the final day. Dundalk’s only hope for survival is to win their next two matches and hope that’s enough to set up the mother of all final day derby showdowns with their near neighbors.
Derry City are experiencing an era similar to Dundalk’s heyday in terms of having the financial resources to go after the very best players in Ireland but so far, they are yet to emulate the Lillywhites in terms of on-field success. Just two points from a possible six at home between Friday and Monday’s matches at the Brandywell against Bohemians and Sligo Rovers was hugely disappointing with many viewing this Derry City as not having the stomach required to see it over the line by winning a first title in almost thirty years.
A wider winless run of five matches in the league adds further substance to such claims with City boss Ruaidhrí Higgins being highly critical of his players performance after Monday’s drab draw against Sligo Rovers.
While Dundalk haven’t won in ten, they’ve remained difficult to play against with Jon Daly’s side only being beaten by more than a one goal margin in two of their last seven defeats. Of their five league wins this season, four of them have come at Oriel Park.
For a title challenging team, Derry’s record of four wins in 16 away matches is poor and it could come back to bite them. The last two meetings between the sides ended in draws, 1-1 in Derry and 0-0 in Dundalk. With Dundalk great Pat Hoban reportedly set for a spell on the sidelines, Derry City’s lack of ruthlessness in front of goal may see them drop further points on Friday night.
BEST BET: Dundalk double chance (23/20)
ST.PATRICK’S ATHLETIC v GALWAY UNITED – Fri, 7.45, LOI TV
St.Patrick’s Athletic are THE form team in the country right now with Stephen Kenny’s side steamrolling recent opposition to record a seven match winning streak across all competitions. Kenny, only in situ since May, has already delivered silverware to the Saints courtesy of their Leinster Senior Cup success but after six consecutive league wins, a very unlikely title triumph is now starting to look a real possibility.
When the former Ireland manager took over from Jon Daly, Pats were in a battle to avoid a relegation play-off place but the Inchicore outfit appear to have taken real confidence from their run to the play-off stages of the UEFA Europa Conference League and have transferred their impressive European showings to the league.
Galway United, managed by Kenny’s old rival John Caulfield, could still be in the title shake up themselves. Yes, they are only four points off the top, as are St.Pat’s, but the concession of a late equaliser against Dundalk a fortnight ago looks as if it could be a real momentum killer for the Tribesmen.
Incredibly, Galway United have scored just 29 goals in 33 league matches and it may be their lack of firepower that sees them come up short. By comparison, St.Pats have scored exactly three goals in each of their last four league matches and they’ve netted 2+ goals in all of their last seven games in all comps.
BEST BET: St.Patrick’s Athletic (6/5)
UCD AFC v LONGFORD TOWN – Fri, 7.45, LOI TV
It’s been a desperately disappointing centenary season for Longford Town FC. A regular promotion challenger in the First Division, De Town will have to settle for a ninth placed finish in their 100th year but green shoots of promise for next season have begun to emerge.
Last Saturday’s well-earned 2-0 win at home to Cobh Ramblers saw Longford extend their unbeaten run at home to five matches (W3, D2) while they’ve climbed into the top-half of the form table over the past five league matches (W2, D1, L2).
UCD have already secured their place in the play-offs but a win here could potentially help the Students secure a second-place finish and with it an easier route in the play-offs. Andy Myler may still be tempted to rest some of his key players ahead of the play-offs while the Students have had a slight drop off in recent weeks with just one win in their last five, they may be in a cruising mode.
With a healthy Longford support set to travel to what will be their final game of the season, the Midlanders may be slightly more motivated for this clash in a bid to send the supporters home with something to grasp onto over the off-season.
BEST BET: Longford Town double chance (6/5)