With only three games remaining in the League of Ireland Premier Division season, seven teams in the ten-team league can still mathematically win the title. The incredibly congested nature of the league standings has set up one of the most dramatic run-ins of all-time.
LOI TV Commentator and host of Between the Stripes LOI podcast, Kieran Burke breaks down the run-in and examines how the title may be won.
SHELBOURNE – Outright odds 2/1 – Current points 54 (1st)
Following last night’s defeat to Shamrock Rovers, it’s now just one win in TEN for the league leaders. That is relegation form and sadly for Damien Duff, it appears his team have run out of ideas.
The loss of key players in the summer was always likely to hit hard but even if Will Jarvis and Gavin Molloy were still at Tolka Park, this kind of slump was always a possibility given how Shels play.
Despite their recent struggles, Shelbourne still hold the second best defensive record in the division but they’ve scored six goals fewer than second from bottom Drogheda. Shelbourne have started to concede sloppy goals that they didn’t dream of giving away in the first part of the campaign but pressure is a funny thing and the cracks are now appearing.
REMAINING GAMES: Waterford (H), Drogheda (H), Derry (A)
The two home games are simply must win for Shelbourne. Waterford have begun to tail off after a great start to the season but the Drogheda game could be sticky if the Drogs are still in with a live chance of leapfrogging a faltering Bohemians to escape the relegation play off place. Should Drogheda lose ground on Bohemians before the Shels game their focus may shift to the play-off and the FAI Cup final instead.
On current form, it’s hard to imagine Shelbourne winning in Derry on the last day to secure the title if it was indeed a winner takes all contest.
POINTS PREDICTION: 5pts (Projected final points 59)
Shelbourne should win against Waterford but their remaining two games look tricky, it’s hard to believe given they’ve been top for so long but staying in the top three may be Shels objective come the last game of the season in Derry.
SHAMROCK ROVERS – Outright odds 3/1 – Current points 52 (2nd)
Just when it looked as if the drive for five had run out of fuel, the champions are back motoring again having claimed 10 points from a possible 15 across their last six league matches. Burke, Byrne, Farrugia, Burns, their all back fit and firing after an injury-ravaged season for Stephen Bradley to contend with.
Fears of a fixtures overload after qualifying for the Conference League group stages have been eased given the kind set of fixtures churned out by UEFA’s supercomputer. A point at home to APOEL last week got Rovers up and running before they beat Shelbourne at home on Sunday night, no travel involved. Up next is a short spin up the M1 to play Larne in Belfast with their next European fixture also at home to TNS, but that doesn’t come until after the final league game.
All of that means Rovers can fully focus on winning their remaining league matches which may be enough to clinch the most unlikely of title wins and a historic fifth in a row.
REMAINING GAMES: Drogheda (A), Dundalk (H), Waterford (H)
The two Louth clubs may hold the key to where the title ends up this season. Rovers will be hoping Dundalk are already relegated by the time they visit Oriel in late October given they were beaten there earlier in the campaign. Waterford at home looks a gimme so if the Hoops can navigate their way around those first two matches they could be setting themselves up to make history.
POINTS PREDICTION: 7 points (Projected final points 59)
DERRY CITY – Outright odds 5/4 – Current points 50 (3rd)
Incredibly, Derry City could still win the double this season. The Candystripes have failed to capatilise on the underperformance of Shamrock Rovers in the early part of the year and now find themselves in the middle of an almighty scrap to lift the title.
With two games in hand though, Derry may be best placed to go and win the title that nobody seems to want to secure.
REMAINING GAMES: Bohemians (H), Sligo Rovers (A), Dundalk (A), St.Patrick’s Athletic (A), Shelbourne (H)
Derry City have the best home record in the league so they should have no issue in dispatching a very poor Bohs team. Derry have struggled against Derry this season so the Bit O’red could prove to be a road block for Ruadhri Higgins side.
In fact, Derry have won just four away games all season so it’s difficult to see them winning away to the league’s most in-form outfit St.Pat’s. The Candystripes could be the team that sends Dundalk down but will they have the bottle to beat Shelbourne on the final day to win a first league title in almost 30 years? I’m not so sure.
POINTS PREDICTION: 8 points (Projected final points 58)
GALWAY UNITED – Outright odds 33/1 – Current points 50 (4th)
The Tribesmen were in the title discussion for all of a week before they blew their chances by conceding a last-gasp goal at home to bottom-side Dundalk last Friday.
Galway have performed miracles to pitch themselves into a race for the European places having only been promoted from the First Division but the title looks beyond them.
REMAINING GAMES: St.Patrick’s Athletic (A), Sligo Rovers (H), Bohemians (A)
St.Pat’s will fancy their chances of beating anyone in this league right now, the Stephen Kenny effect is in full flow at Richmond Park so Galway will not look forward to their visit there on Friday week. Sligo Rovers are finishing the season well and given it’s a Connacht derby that game is unpredictable but should Bohs fail to find form in the coming weeks, that is a very winnable final game for the Tribesmen.
POINTS PREDICTION: 4 points (Projected final points 54)
ST.PATRICK’S ATHLETIC – Outright odds 14/1 – Current points 47 (5th)
The Saints top the form table over the last 5, 10 and 15 matches with Stephen Kenny’s side playing some breathtaking football at present. The combination of an impressive European run and some excellent summer signings has given Pats the confidence that they can topple anyone but have they left it too late to go all the way and win the league?
REMAINING GAMES: Bohemians (A), Galway United (H), Derry City (H), Sligo Rovers (A)
Given how they’re playing at the moment, you could easily see Pats winning all their remaining matches. However, this is the League of Ireland, there’s nothing straightforward about this league so surely there’s a bump waiting along the road somewhere for Kenny’s Saints? They may just find themselves two points too far back.
POINTS PREDICTION: 10 points (Projected final points 57)
SLIGO ROVERS (100/1) & WATERFORD FC (Price on request)
If we’ve mentioned the rest, we must talk about these two clubs given they are still in the mathematical equation. In fact, Sligo Rovers are on the same points as St.Pat’s with Waterford just four points further back.
However, Sligo Rovers have an extremely tough run in with games against three of the other title chasers while Waterford have won just three of their last ten and don’t look capable of putting together the kind of run required to cause the mother of all title upsets.
So there you have it, according to my projections, Shamrock Rovers will win the title on goal difference ahead of Shelbourne and Derry City with St.Pat’s finishing fourth.