We’re almost there. It’s the penultimate night of the extended international window.
Monday’s Nations League Tips
- Italy to win (v Turkey)
- BTTS Yes (Bosnia & Herzegovina v Poland)
- Northern Ireland to win (v Georgia)
- Sweden to win (v Romania)
- Odds: 9.91/1
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Italy v Turkey, Mon, 19:45
Despite a lack of star power, Italy have made a strong start to their UNL League A campaign by claiming four points from their first three games in a group containing Belgium and Italy. With the top two in the group playing each other, this home tie against a struggling Turkey offers the Azzurri a chance to enhance their chances of reaching the play-offs.
Unlike Italy, Turkey did qualify for the World Cup in the Americas, but they underperformed in what looked a weak enough group, and perhaps that disappointment has followed them into the UNL, with Turkey losing all three of their matches by a combined scoreline of 8-1.
Italy are responsible for half of that tally thanks to a 4-1 win in Bursa last week. Italy’s strong record on home soil should provide plenty of encouragement, with four victories and four clean sheets from their last six matches in front of their own supporters. With two of their remaining three group games to be played at home, that recent form could prove particularly significant.
Ironically, Turkey are managed by an Italian, Vincenzo Montella, who is now coming under increasing pressure following a run of five defeats in their last six matches. The prospect of some relief for Montella appears to be unlikely when you look at the history of this fixture. Italy have never lost against Turkey in 15 previous meetings (W11, D4) and look set to extend their impressive record in Bologna on Monday.
BEST BET: Italy (4/9)
Bosnia & Herzegovina v Poland, Mon, 19:45
Bosnia & Herzegovina and Poland played out a stalemate in Warsaw, but with the Group B4 race finely poised, victory in this meeting would represent a major boost for either nation’s hopes of securing a top-two finish.
The hosts remain unbeaten in this season’s Nations League and also boast an impressive run of just one defeat in their last eight games at home (W4).
Poland breathed new life into their UNL campaign on Friday, bouncing back from a sluggish start with a thumping 6-0 victory over Romania to re-establish themselves in the top-two picture. Having dropped out of the top tier in the previous cycle, Poland will have their sights firmly set on securing promotion and a return to the elite level.
Bosnia have still never defeated Poland in six attempts (D2, L4), and following a 0-0 draw in September, this could be another tight encounter. Six of Poland’s last eight matches featured over 2.5 goals and even in defeat, they’ve managed to worry opposition defences, scoring in six of their last seven defeats.
With the hosts on form and the visitors finding their scoring boots last time, this may end up being a more entertaining encounter than the most recent clash.
BEST BET: BTTS YES (3/4)
Northern Ireland v Georgia, Mon, 19:45
Northern Ireland have emerged as surprise contenders for promotion in UEFA Nations League (UNL) League B, and another victory could significantly strengthen their position. With Georgia occupying the foot of the group, Michael O’Neill’s side will see a home clash at Windsor Park as a prime opportunity to strengthen their promotion push.
A trip to Ukraine looked like Northern Ireland’s toughest assignment in Group B2, but they produced an impressive performance to return home with a convincing 3-0 victory. That result leaves the Green and White Army unbeaten after three matchdays (W2, D1) and sitting at the summit, with another three points here likely to put them within touching distance of at least a promotion play-off place as their closest challengers meet elsewhere.
Northern Ireland also have plenty of reason to feel confident on home soil. They have suffered just one defeat across their last ten matches in Belfast (W7, D2), while two of their remaining three fixtures will be played at Windsor Park, further strengthening their hopes of securing a historic first-ever League A campaign.
The outlook could hardly be more different for Georgia, who remain without a victory after three Group B2 matches (D1, L2) and are now facing a serious battle to avoid relegation to League C. Their latest setback came in a narrow 1-0 defeat away to Hungary, extending a difficult campaign that has already seen Willy Sagnol depart the managerial post, with Ramaz Svanadze taking over.
However, the change in the dugout has yet to spark a revival, with Georgia still searching for their first win under Svanadze. Their struggles also predate his appointment, as they have now gone seven competitive matches without a victory (D1, L6), including four consecutive defeats on the road.
Northern Ireland’s recent competitive fixtures have been notably low-scoring, with both teams finding the net in none of their last eight matches. They have also kept their opponents at bay in seven of their previous nine UEFA Nations League outings.
Georgia are yet to find the net in this season’s competition, but it is surely only a matter of time before Khvicha Kvaratskhelia finds his scoring boots, with the PSG star being compared to Northern Irish great George Best ahead of the trip to Belfast.
As a result, I’ve shied away from backing Northern Ireland to win to nil, but they look great value to claim the three points.
BEST BET: Northern Ireland (6/4)
Romania v Sweden, Mon, 19:45
With Romania struggling for both form and confidence, this looks like an ideal opportunity for Sweden to underline their status as the team to beat in Group B4. The visitors have already shown plenty of consistency during this campaign, remaining unbeaten through their opening three matches, while their broader UNL record of seven wins and three draws from their last ten outings further highlights their reliability at this level.
Romania, by contrast, have been badly exposed since stepping up to League B, suffering three consecutive defeats while shipping 12 goals. Their latest 6-0 humiliation against Poland will hardly have helped morale either, particularly with relegation now a genuine concern. Sweden have a chance to exploit those frailties and, with Gyökeres in prolific form at the head of their attack, another positive result would further strengthen their position at the Group B4 summit.
BEST BET: Sweden (8/11)
Monday’s Nations League ACCA
- Italy to win (v Turkey)
- BTTS Yes (Bosnia & Herzegovina v Poland)
- Northern Ireland to win (v Georgia)
- Sweden to win (v Romania)
- Odds: 9.91/1
