Cheltenham Festival 2026 – Day 2 Trends and Key Stats (Wed, March 10)
The 2026 Cheltenham Festival begins on Tuesday, March 10 and runs until Friday, March 13.
Often dubbed “horse racing’s Olympics,” the four-day meeting is the highlight of the National Hunt season and the biggest week of the year for racing fans and punters alike.
Ahead of Day 2, BAR 1 Betting broadcaster Will Reilly has looked at the key stats and trends for all seven races on Wednesday’s card to help point you towards a few potential winners.
Stats-based selections for Wednesday can be found at the end of this piece.
Day 1 Stats can be found here.
All races on Wednesday will be run on Cheltenham’s Old Course.
1:20 – Turners Novices’ Hurdle
Grade 1 – £150,000 – 2m5f
The Turners Novices’ Hurdle opens the action on Day 2.
Key trends:
- Only two winners in the last 17 years have started bigger than 7/1 – Willoughby Court (14/1, 2017) and City Island (8/1, 2019).
- Horses currently priced 7/1 or shorter for 2026 include No Drama This End, Talk The Talk, Skylight Hustle, King Rasko Grey and Ballyfad.
- Six-year-olds dominate the race, winning 13 of the last 15 renewals and 10 of the last 12. Favourite No Drama This End fits that trend.
- Sir Gerhard (2022) is the only seven-year-old to win the race. Sober is the shortest-priced seven-year-old in the current market.
- Ireland has won 10 of the last 12 runnings, although favourite No Drama This End is trained in Britain by Paul Nicholls.
- 10 of the last 12 winners started at 9/2 or shorter, with the favourite winning five of the last eight.
- Willie Mullins has won five of the last 12 renewals, including three of the last four.
- Possible Mullins runners include King Rasko Grey, Sober, Sortudo, Leader d’Allier, Laurets d’Estruval, Saint Baco, Too Bossy For Us and Free Spirit.
2:00 – Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase
Grade 1 – £200,000 – 3m1f
The Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase is a key staying novice contest on Day 2.
Key trends:
- The last 12 winners had previously run at Cheltenham, with seven having already won at the track.
- The 2024 winner Fact To File had not won at Cheltenham but finished second in the Champion Bumper in 2023.
- Favourite Final Demand finished third in last year’s Turners Novices’ Hurdle.
- No horse older than eight has won this race in the last 16 years.
- Seven-year-olds dominate, accounting for 13 of the last 15 winners and 20 of the last 25.
- Leading seven-year-olds this year include Final Demand and Romeo Coolio.
- Ireland has won six of the last 13 renewals.
- Eight of the last 11 winners started at 4/1 or shorter.
- Last year’s winner Lecky Watson (20/1) was a major statistical outlier.
2:40 – BetMGM Cup (formerly the Coral Cup)
£110,000 – 2m5f
The Coral Cup, now known as the BetMGM Cup, is one of the most competitive handicaps of the week.
Key trends:
- Ireland has won six of the last 10 runnings and eight of the last 20.
- Langer Dan won in 2023 (9/1) and 2024 (13/2) for Dan Skelton.
- Kateira is trained by Dan Skelton, as is Nurse Susan (Langer Dan colours).
- Willie Mullins won last year with Jimmy Du Seuil (16/1).
- Mullins trains the current favourite Storm Heart.
- 10 of the last 17 winners started at 16/1 or bigger, including Commander Of Fleet (50/1) in 2022.
- Nicky Henderson has won the race four times in the last 16 years, and three of the last seven.
- Henderson entries include Iberico Lord, Jingko Blue, Lucky Place and La Pinsonniere.
- Only four of the last 16 winners carried less than 11st.
- Storm Heart has been allocated 11st 9lb, while Ndaawi heads the weights with 12st.
- Just one favourite has won in the last 17 years.
- Trainer Gordon Elliott has a strong record in the race and has entered The Yellow Clay, Wendrock, Farren Glory, He Cant Dance, Maxxum, Ndaawi, Coyote Spirit and Open Secret.
3:20 – Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase
£75,000 – 3m5f 56y
The Cross Country Chase returns after the race was not run in 2024 due to a waterlogged course.
Key trends:
- Ireland has won 17 of the 20 runnings since the race was introduced in 2005.
- Gordon Elliott has won four of the last seven, with Denise Foster also winning in 2021 when temporarily holding Elliott’s licence.
- Elliott’s Favori De Champdou currently heads the betting.
- Ireland has won 10 of the last 12 renewals, including Stumptown (5/2 favourite) last year for Gavin Cromwell.
- Stumptown runs again this year off just 3lb higher.
- Five favourites have won in the last nine years.
- Nine of the last 11 winners started at 9/2 or shorter.
- Favori De Champdou, Stumptown and Desertmore House are all 9/2 or shorter at present.
- Even Tiger Roll was only 7/1 when winning in 2018.
- Britain has won the race just twice, both with Balthazar King (2012 & 2014) for Philip Hobbs.
- France’s sole victory came in 2020 with Easysland.
- French trainer David Cottin has entered Karre D’As.
4:00 PM CHAMPION CHASE
GRADE 1, £400,000, 1M7F 199Y
- Willie Mullins won this race for the first time in 2022 with Energumene, who successfully defended his crown in 2023. Mullins also had the beaten favourite in 2024, when El Fabiolo (2/9) was pulled up, but still saddled the runner-up Gentleman De Mee.
- Majborough (odds-on fav), Il Etait Temps both run for the Champion trainer this year.
- Nicky Henderson has won the race six times, with five of those victories coming in the last 14 years. He did not have a runner in 2024, but finished runner-up last year with Jonbon. Henderson again has no runner this year.
- In 12 of the last 17 runnings the winning margin has been seven lengths or less. By contrast, last year’s winner Marine Nationale scored by a commanding 18 lengths, while Energumene won by 10 lengths in 2023.
- Ireland has claimed 11 of the last 23 renewals of the Champion Chase.
- There have been three winning favourites in the last eight years, while seven of the last ten winners were returned at odds of 6/1 or shorter.
4:40 – Grand Annual Handicap Chase
£150,000 – 1m7f 199y
The Johnny Henderson Grand Annual is one of the fastest-run handicaps of the week.
Key trends:
- Ireland has won six of the last 13 runnings, including Jazzy Matty (15/2) last year for Cian Collins.
- Jazzy Matty could return this year from a mark 8lb higher.
- Nine of the last 17 winners started at 16/1 or bigger.
- Recent big-priced winners include:
- Maskada (22/1) – 2023
- Global Citizen (28/1) – 2022
- Croco Bay (66/1) – 2019
- Only two favourites have won in the last 17 years.
- Paul Nicholls has won two of the last 10 renewals and could be represented by Sans Bruit.
- Nicky Henderson, whose father the race is named after, last won it in 2012. He has no runners entered this year.
5:20 – Weatherbys Champion Bumper
Grade 1 – £80,000 – 2m 87y
The Champion Bumper concludes Day 2 and is often dominated by Irish trainers.
Key trends:
- Willie Mullins has won five of the last six renewals, six of the last eight, and 14 in total.
- Ireland has won 26 of the 33 runnings since the race was first held in 1992.
- Mullins entries include Love Sign d’Aunou, The Irish Avatar, Quiryn, Our Trigger, The Wager, Maximillian Lady and Heldam.
- Ireland has won 11 of the last 13, including the last nine.
- Gordon Elliott (2 wins last 13) entries include Keep Him Company, Broadway Ted, Charismatic Kid and With Nolimit.
- Five-year-olds dominate, with 15 of the last 22 winners aged five.
- Only three four-year-olds have ever won the race – Rhythm Section (1993), Dato Star (1995) and Cue Card (2010).
- Patrick Mullins has ridden four winners, more than any other jockey.
- Eight of the last 10 winners had already won a Listed or Graded bumper.
- Entries that match that trend include Bass Hunter, Broadway Ted and Moonverrin.
STATS-BASED SELECTIONS…
1.20pm – KING RASKO GREY
2pm – ROMEO COOLIO (who was 4/1 fav at the time of writing, March 9th, 8.30pm) – FINAL DEMAND might replace him as fav, in which case he would fit the bill)
2.40pm – FARREN GLORY in first-time cheek-pieces is suggested.
3.20pm – At the top of the market, FAVORI DE CHAMPDOU and STUMPTOWN stand out; if pressed, we’ll go for the latter
4pm – There have been just three winning favourites in the last 10 years, but seven of the ten were 5/1 or shorter, and nine were 17/2 or shorter. The fav, MAJBOROUGH (NB), gets the vote.
4.40pm – With bigger-priced horses holding a good record in the race, JASKO DES DAMES could give you a run for your money
5.20pm – The stats point strongly towards Ireland and, in particular, Willie Mullins. The road leads us to LOVE SIGN D’AUNOU (Nap), whose rider, Patrick Mullins has won this race more times (4) than any other jockey.
