Cheltenham Festival 2026 – Day 2 Trends and Key Stats (Wed, March 10)
The 2026 Cheltenham Festival begins on Tuesday, March 10 and runs until Friday, March 13.
Often dubbed “horse racing’s Olympics,” the four-day meeting is the highlight of the National Hunt season and the biggest week of the year for racing fans and punters alike.
Ahead of Day 2, BAR 1 Betting broadcaster Will Reilly has looked at the key stats and trends for all seven races on Wednesday’s card to help point you towards a few potential winners.
Day 1 Stats can be found here.
All races on Wednesday will be run on Cheltenham’s Old Course.
1:20 – Turners Novices’ Hurdle
Grade 1 – £150,000 – 2m5f
The Turners Novices’ Hurdle opens the action on Day 2.
Key trends:
- Only two winners in the last 17 years have started bigger than 7/1 – Willoughby Court (14/1, 2017) and City Island (8/1, 2019).
- Horses currently priced 7/1 or shorter for 2026 include No Drama This End, Talk The Talk, Skylight Hustle, King Rasko Grey and Ballyfad.
- Six-year-olds dominate the race, winning 13 of the last 15 renewals and 10 of the last 12. Favourite No Drama This End fits that trend.
- Sir Gerhard (2022) is the only seven-year-old to win the race. Sober is the shortest-priced seven-year-old in the current market.
- Ireland has won 10 of the last 12 runnings, although favourite No Drama This End is trained in Britain by Paul Nicholls.
- 10 of the last 12 winners started at 9/2 or shorter, with the favourite winning five of the last eight.
- Willie Mullins has won five of the last 12 renewals, including three of the last four.
- Possible Mullins runners include King Rasko Grey, Sober, Sortudo, Leader d’Allier, Laurets d’Estruval, Saint Baco, Too Bossy For Us and Free Spirit.
2:00 – Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase
Grade 1 – £200,000 – 3m1f
The Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase is a key staying novice contest on Day 2.
Key trends:
- The last 12 winners had previously run at Cheltenham, with seven having already won at the track.
- The 2024 winner Fact To File had not won at Cheltenham but finished second in the Champion Bumper in 2023.
- Favourite Final Demand finished third in last year’s Turners Novices’ Hurdle.
- No horse older than eight has won this race in the last 16 years.
- Seven-year-olds dominate, accounting for 13 of the last 15 winners and 20 of the last 25.
- Leading seven-year-olds this year include Final Demand and Romeo Coolio.
- Ireland has won six of the last 13 renewals.
- Eight of the last 11 winners started at 4/1 or shorter.
- Last year’s winner Lecky Watson (20/1) was a major statistical outlier.
2:40 – BetMGM Cup (formerly the Coral Cup)
£110,000 – 2m5f
The Coral Cup, now known as the BetMGM Cup, is one of the most competitive handicaps of the week.
Key trends:
- Ireland has won six of the last 10 runnings and eight of the last 20.
- Langer Dan won in 2023 (9/1) and 2024 (13/2) for Dan Skelton.
- Kateira is trained by Dan Skelton, as is Nurse Susan (Langer Dan colours).
- Willie Mullins won last year with Jimmy Du Seuil (16/1).
- Mullins trains the current favourite Storm Heart.
- 10 of the last 17 winners started at 16/1 or bigger, including Commander Of Fleet (50/1) in 2022.
- Nicky Henderson has won the race four times in the last 16 years, and three of the last seven.
- Henderson entries include Iberico Lord, Jingko Blue, Lucky Place and La Pinsonniere.
- Only four of the last 16 winners carried less than 11st.
- Storm Heart has been allocated 11st 9lb, while Ndaawi heads the weights with 12st.
- Just one favourite has won in the last 17 years.
- Trainer Gordon Elliott has a strong record in the race and has entered The Yellow Clay, Wendrock, Farren Glory, He Cant Dance, Maxxum, Ndaawi, Coyote Spirit and Open Secret.
3:20 – Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase
£75,000 – 3m5f 56y
The Cross Country Chase returns after the race was not run in 2024 due to a waterlogged course.
Key trends:
- Ireland has won 17 of the 20 runnings since the race was introduced in 2005.
- Gordon Elliott has won four of the last seven, with Denise Foster also winning in 2021 when temporarily holding Elliott’s licence.
- Elliott’s Favori De Champdou currently heads the betting.
- Ireland has won 10 of the last 12 renewals, including Stumptown (5/2 favourite) last year for Gavin Cromwell.
- Stumptown runs again this year off just 3lb higher.
- Five favourites have won in the last nine years.
- Nine of the last 11 winners started at 9/2 or shorter.
- Favori De Champdou, Stumptown and Desertmore House are all 9/2 or shorter at present.
- Even Tiger Roll was only 7/1 when winning in 2018.
- Britain has won the race just twice, both with Balthazar King (2012 & 2014) for Philip Hobbs.
- France’s sole victory came in 2020 with Easysland.
- French trainer David Cottin has entered Karre D’As.
4PM CHAMPION CHASE
GRADE 1, £400,000, 1M7F 199Y
- THIS IS A RACE THAT WILLIE MULLINS WON FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 2022, WITH ENERGUMENE, WHO ALSO WON IN 2023 – WILLIE HAD THE BEATEN FAV IN 2024 ((EL FABIOLO, 2/9, PULLED UP)
- NICKY HENDERSON HAS WON IT SIX TIMES, 5 OF THOSE WINS COMING IN THE LAST 14 YEARS – HE DIDN’T HAVE A RUNNER IN 2024 AND FINISHED RUNNER-UP WITH JONBON LAST YEAR
- IN 12 OF THE LAST 17 YEARS THE WINNING DISTANCE HAS BEEN 7 LENGTHS OR LESS – BY CONTRAST, LAST YEAR’S WINNER, MARINE NATIONALE, WON BY 18 LENGTHS – ENERGUMENE WON BY 10 LENGTHS IN 2023
- IRELAND HAS WON 11 OF THE LAST 23 CHAMPION CHASES
4:40 – Grand Annual Handicap Chase
£150,000 – 1m7f 199y
The Johnny Henderson Grand Annual is one of the fastest-run handicaps of the week.
Key trends:
- Ireland has won six of the last 13 runnings, including Jazzy Matty (15/2) last year for Cian Collins.
- Jazzy Matty could return this year from a mark 8lb higher.
- Nine of the last 17 winners started at 16/1 or bigger.
- Recent big-priced winners include:
- Maskada (22/1) – 2023
- Global Citizen (28/1) – 2022
- Croco Bay (66/1) – 2019
- Only two favourites have won in the last 17 years.
- Paul Nicholls has won two of the last 10 renewals and could be represented by Sans Bruit.
- Nicky Henderson, whose father the race is named after, last won it in 2012. He has no runners entered this year.
5:20 – Weatherbys Champion Bumper
Grade 1 – £80,000 – 2m 87y
The Champion Bumper concludes Day 2 and is often dominated by Irish trainers.
Key trends:
- Willie Mullins has won five of the last six renewals, six of the last eight, and 14 in total.
- Ireland has won 26 of the 33 runnings since the race was first held in 1992.
- Mullins entries include Love Sign d’Aunou, The Irish Avatar, Quiryn, Our Trigger, The Wager, Maximillian Lady and Heldam.
- Ireland has won 11 of the last 13, including the last nine.
- Gordon Elliott (2 wins last 13) entries include Keep Him Company, Broadway Ted, Charismatic Kid and With Nolimit.
- Five-year-olds dominate, with 15 of the last 22 winners aged five.
- Only three four-year-olds have ever won the race – Rhythm Section (1993), Dato Star (1995) and Cue Card (2010).
- Patrick Mullins has ridden four winners, more than any other jockey.
- Eight of the last 10 winners had already won a Listed or Graded bumper.
- Entries that match that trend include Bass Hunter, Broadway Ted and Moonverrin.
