Cheltenham – Fate of the favs and some day one stats

Cheltenham 2023 runs form March 14th to 17th

STATS RELATING TO 2022 – CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL

There were 11 winning favs plus one joint-fav from the 28 races at Cheltenham last year.

Furthermore, 4 favs finished 2nd, along with one joint-fav and one co-fav.

17 of the 28 winners were returned at 4/1 or shorter – 14 were returned at 5/2 or shorter.

It was a different story in the card’s 9 handicaps as five of the 9 were returned at 22/1 or bigger, with just one of the favs winning, which was State Man (11/4) in the County Hurdle.

THE 2021 FIGS WERE…

There were 9 winning favs.

Furthermore, 8 favs finished 2nd.

12 of the 28 winners were returned at 4/1 or shorter – 14 were returned at 9/2 or shorter.

In the card’s 9 handicaps, 4 of the 9 winners were returned at 28/1 or bigger, with two of them winning – The Shunter at 9/4 in the Magners Plate, and Mount Ida at 3/1 in the Fulke Walwyn/Kim Muir.

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DAY ONE STATS

THE SUPREME NOVICES HURDLE – THE RACE THAT OPENS THE FESTIVAL AT 130PM ON TUESDAY MARCH 14

SINCE 2013, WILLIE MULLINS’ HAS WON THE RACE 5 TIMES AND FINISHED SECOND TWICE FROM 26 RUNNERS

IRELAND HAS WON 13 OF THE LAST 22 RENEWALS – BUT ONLY 5 WERE RETURNED AS THE OUTRIGHT FAVOURITE

8 OF THE LAST 10 WINNERS WERE RETURNED AT 6/1 OR SHORTER BUT ONLY 2 WERE RETURNED AS THE OUTRIGHT FAV (PLUS 2 JOINT-FAVS)

NICKY HENDERSON HAS WON 2 OF THE LAST 3 AND 3 OF THE LAST 7

THE ARKLE – AT 2:10, RACE 2 ON DAY 1

WILLIE MULLINS HAS WON THIS RACE 4 TIMES IN THE LAST 8 YEARS

IRELAND HAS WON 5 OF THE LAST 8

THE FAVOURITE HAS WON 8 OF THE LAST 11 ARKLES AND 7 OF THE LAST 11 WINNERS HAVE BEEN RETURNED AS THE ODDS-ON FAVOURITE

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ULTIMA HANDICAP CHASE, 2.50PM, RACE 3, DAY 1

THERE HAS BEEN JUST ONE WINNING-FAV IN THE LAST 13 YEARS

NO HORSE TRAINED IN IRELAND HAS WON IN THE LAST 13 YEARS

DAVID PIPE WON THIS IN 2016 AND 2017 AND SENT OUT THE SECOND LAST YEAR. HE RUNS REMASTERED THIS YEAR, WHO WON OFF 146 AT KEMPTON IN DEC AND IS NOW ON 151. WIND SURGERY HAS HELPED HIM.

LUCINDA RUSSELL’S HORSES ARE RUNNING WELL (6 WINNERS FROM HER LAST 9 RUNNERS GOING INTO SAT’S RACING) AND SHE RUNS CORACH RAMBLER, WHO WON THIS LAST YEAR OFF 140 (NOW 146). HE CAN GO WELL AGAIN.

IT’S HARD TO BELIEVE THAT NOBLE YEATS FINISHED 9TH LAST YEAR OFF 147.

CHAMPION HURDLE

3:30PM THE BIG RACE OF THE DAY

EIGHT WINNING FAVS IN THE LAST 12 YEARS

NICKY HENDERSON HAS WON 3 OF THE LAST 6

WILLIE MULLINS HAS WON 4 OF THE LAST 12

JUST 2 OF THE LAST 12 WINNERS HAD AN SP IN DOUBLE FIGURES – ESPOIR D’ALLEN (16/1, 2019) AND ROCK ON RUBY (11/1, 2012)

7 OF THE LAST 10 WINNERS WERE RETURNED AT 5/2 OR SHORTER

THE MARES HURDLE, 4:10, HAS BEEN WON BY IRELAND IN 12 OF THE 15 YEARS IT HAS BEEN STAGED HONEYSUCKLE IS FAV – IT WOULD BE GREAT TO SEE HER WIN AND WOULD RAISE THE ROOF, NOT JUST BECAUSE SHE HAS BEEN SUCH A JOY TO WATCH AND FOLLOW BUT, ALSO, BECAUSE THIS WILL BE HER LAST VISIT TO CHELTENHAM (WHERE SHE IS UNBEATEN IN 3 FESTIVAL RUNS), AND FOR THE DE BROMHEAD FAMILY, WHOSE SON JACK TRAGICALLY DIED LAST YEAR

The great Honeysuckle will be running at Cheltenham for the last time

4.50PM – BOODLES JUVENILE HANDICAP HURDLE (THE FRED WINTER)

JUST ONE WINNING FAV IN THE LAST 10

7 OF THE TEN HAVE BEEN RETURNED AT 10/1 OR BIGGER

6 OF THE 10 HAVE BEEN RETURNED AT 25/1 OR BIGGER – INCLUDING JEFF KIDDER AT 80/1 IN 2021

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NATIONAL HUNT CHALLENGE CUP, 5:30PM

THIS RACE HAS BEEN WON BY IRELAND IN 7 OF THE LAST 10 YEARS

WILLIE MULLINS (3) AND GORDON ELLIOTT (3) HAVE WON 6 OF THE LAST 10 BETWEEN THEM

WILLIE HAS WON TWO OF THE LAST 5 AND THREE OF THE LAST 10

GORDON ELLIOTT HAS WON 3 OF THE LAST 8 (4 IF YOU WANT TO GIVE HIM CREDIT FOR GALVIN’S WIN IN 2021)

THE LAST WINNING FAV WAS BACK IN FOCUS (9/4, 2013) BUT SIX OF THE LAST 9 WINNERS WERE RETURNED AT 8/1 OR SHORTER, AND 4 OF THE LAST 10 AT 9/2 OR SHORTER

7YOS HAVE WON FIVE OF THE LAST 8



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*Odds were correct at time of publishing the article