Will Reilly previews Sunday’s Manchester derby, City v United, KO 2pm
Stats-based preview of Man City v Man Utd, Premier League (Sunday October 2nd, 2pm) by Will Reilly
OVERVIEW
The Manchester Derby is always a keenly-anticipated fixture.
Ahead of the weekend’s games, City sit second in the table with 17 points after seven games, and United are fifth, with 12 points from six games.
This year’s match poses such questions as can United clip the wings of scoring sensation Erling Haaland, and can they maintain their pre-international break form, which brought four-successive league wins?
As the numbers below will show, United have a good recent record in this fixture, which includes matches played since Pep Guardiola became City’s head coach in February 2016.
It is good to have the Premier League back following the international break. Make the most of it as the World Cup will begin on Sunday November 20th and run to Sunday December 18th. The Premier League will then resume on December 26th.
FORM
Man City
- Five win and two draws from their seven league games so far
- Goal difference of 17 (23-6)
- 4 clean sheets
- Erling Haaland, 11 goals
- 8 different players have scored in the seven games
- Their home record in the league reads as 3 wins, by scores of 4-0, 4-2 and 6-0, with Haaland getting 6 goals
- Erling Haaland is seeking to become the first player in Premier League history to score a hat-trick in three-successive home games
Man Utd
- They lost their first 2 league matches of the season but have now won their last 4 (2 at home, 2 away)
- They have kept 2 clean sheets in the 4 games
- 4 players have scored in those games – Rashford (3), Sancho (2), Fernandes and Antony (1 each)
Bar One Racing markets for Man City v Man Utd can be found by clicking on this link
HEAD TO HEADS
- Man Utd have a good recent record in this league fixture at the Etihad
- In the last 10 meetings, they have won won 5 and lost 4, scoring 14 goals and conceding 17
- There have kept 3 clean sheets in the 10 games
- 6 of the 10 games have produced over 2.5 goals
- In 6 of the 10 games both teams have scored
- City have kept 2 clean sheets in the 10 games
Since Pep Guardiola became City’s head coach in Feb 2016, City’s record in this fixture is:
- Played seven, won two and lost 4, with 10 goals scored and 10 conceded
- They have kept just one clean sheet in the seven games and failed to score in 3 of them
- However, they have scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings in the league at the Etihad
- In those 5 games, both teams scored in 4 of them and 4 have produced over 2.5 goals
CHECK OUT our PRICE BOOSTS on MAN CITY V MAN UTD…
**NB The boost on Man Utd to score 2 or more goals is 11/4 up to 4/1
TEAM NEWS
Man City
Kalvin Phillips (shoulder) is out, as is John Stones.
Nathan Aké and Aymeric Laporte have been nursing injuries but both of them trained on Thursday so could yet be in contention for Sunday.
Man Utd
Harry Maguire misses out through injury, but Marcus Rashford looks okay.
Anthony Martial is back in training but, even if available, is unlikely to start on Sunday in any case.
Check out our WEEKEND 5 STARS option…
VERDICT / TIPS
Firstly, a reminder that these previews are based principally on stats. As such Man Utd at 7/1 can be viewed as tempting.
United to win with Draw No Bet is 9/2 is also tempting.
This match is unlikely to end 0-0 (10% chance based on the last 10 meetings), but is likely to produce over 2.5 goals (60%), which is priced at 2/5 and it is likely that both teams will score, which is 7/10 at the time of writing.
The latter would look the better-value bet to me.
The heart very much feels that City deserve to be strong favourites, but these previews are stats-based so my ‘stats head’ cannot be so dogmatic.
DOUBLE THE ODDS…
Man City v Man Utd is a DOUBLE THE ODDS on FIRST GOALSCORER BETS MATCH with us (see pic below) so here are some FIRST GOALSCORER prices:
Haaland 2/1
Rashford 9/1
Gündoğan 9/1
Mahrez 11/2
Sancho 16/1 – which looks big for a former City player who has scored in 2 of United’s last 4 league matches
Foden 7/1
De Bruyne 11/2
Ronaldo 8/1
DOUBLE THE ODDS with BAR ONE RACING…
