RUGBY UNION TIPS: Best Bets for URC Week 4

Week four of the URC sees Leinster return to the Aviva as they come up against Munster on Saturday evening.

URC Week 4 Fixtures

Friday, October 24

  • Cardiff v Sharks, 19:45, Premier Sports Rugby
  • Connacht v Zebre, 19:45, Premier Sports 1
  • Edinburgh v Lions, 19:45, Premier Sports 2

Saturday, October 25

  • Bulls v Ulster, 12:45, Premier Sports 2
  • Benetton v Glasgow Warriors, 15:00, Premier Sports 2
  • Stomers v Scarlets, 15:00, Premier Sports 1
  • Leinster v Munster, 18:00, Premier Sports 1
  • Ospreys v Dragons, 19:45, Premier Sports 2

URC Week 4 Tips

  • Sharks to win 6-10 points (9/2)
  • Connacht -21 (10/11)
  • Edinburgh to win 1-5 points (9/2)
  • Bulls -16 (10/11)
  • Glasgow to win 1-5 points (9/2)
  • Stormers -22 (10/11)
  • Leinster -16.5 (4/5)
  • Ospreys to win 1-5 points (7/2)
  • Combined odds: 9376/1

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Cardiff v Sharks – Friday, October 23, 19:45

Home advantage might swing it Cardiff’s way, but Sharks have returning Springboks to add to their team and could make it difficult for the home side.

Cardiff are without a win in their last two games, losing 29-5 against Leinster and then beaten 28-12 by Northampton in the ERCC. They made mistakes against Leinster, but it was a little better last weekend. Josh Adans will be dangerous with the ball in hand, and that is what Cardiff will try to do. They will look to add pace out wide and try to control territory.

Sharks are a team with plenty of firepower, and a win in the Challenge Cup over Lyon last weekend will boost confidence even more. The return of several Springboks, including André Esterhuizen, Ox Nché, Thomas du Toit, Ethan Hooker and Edwill van der Merwe, will make things difficult for the home side.

Cardiff have won three of the five URC meetings, but the Sharks have won the most recent two.

Selection: Sharks to win 6-10 points (11/2)

Connacht v Zebre – Friday, October 23, 19:45

This is a big opportunity for Connacht to get their URC campaign back on track. They welcome a Zebre Parma side still searching for its first league win of the season, with confidence boosted by Connacht’s spectacular European victory over Saracens last weekend.

Connacht were impressive last weekend with a 45-36 win over Saracens, and Ciaran Frawley grabbed two tries on his home debut. Conceding six tries showed that Connacht still have work to do, particularly in managing transitions and closing out dangerous attacking phases.

Zebre arrive in Galway after three consecutive URC defeats and a 40–21 Challenge Cup loss to Ulster. Zebre’s best chance is to disrupt Connacht’s rhythm, turn the game into a scrappy contest and capitalise on defensive mistakes. Tommaso Allan will look to try to control the game for his side, but it looks a tough task for them.

Connacht have dominated this fixture in recent years, winning their last eight URC meetings with Zebre.

Selection: Connacht -21 (10/11)

Edinburgh v Lions – Friday, October 23, 19:45

This is a compelling contest between an Edinburgh side making an excellent start to the league season and a Lions team with the attacking talent to trouble anyone when they find their rhythm.

Three from three for Edinburgh, who sit at the top of the URC table after victories against Ulster, Stormers and Zebre Parma. Mistakes were costly last weekend as they were beaten by Toulon, but they will be hoping the winning run can continue in the URC. Scotland internationals Duhan van der Merwe and second-row Marshall Sykes are on track to return after injury, potentially giving Edinburgh a significant boost in both attack and the pack.

The Johannesburg side have shown just how dangerous they can be. They opened the URC with a dramatic 27–26 win over Leinster, followed by a 35–19 victory against the Ospreys. Their next league outing ended in a heavy 57–15 defeat to the Bulls. Their European defeat to La Rochelle came under extraordinarily difficult circumstances following the death of lock Hyron Andrews, aged 31. The team chose to play in his honour. It is an important human context to this fixture, and their emotional and physical recovery will be a factor.

The Lions have won three of the four listed URC meetings, but Edinburgh’s narrow home victory in 2023 shows they can make this a close contest in Scotland.

Selection: Edinburgh to win 1-5 Points (9/2)

Bulls v Ulster – Saturday, October 24, 12:45

This is a tough assignment for Ulster, who travel to altitude to face a Bulls side with a formidable home record and plenty of attacking firepower.

The Bulls have made an impressive start to their season, while Ulster are still searching for their first URC victory. However, Ulster showed plenty of character in fighting back against Munster and have selected a strong squad for the trip. The Pretoria side have scored heavily in recent weeks and will be eager to carry that form into their final URC fixture before the November international break.

Ulster have endured a frustrating start to their URC campaign, but their results suggest they are competitive even when things go against them. Tom Stewart captains the team from hooker, with Tom O’Toole and Keynan Knox completing the starting front row. Nick Timoney and David McCann add further energy to the back row.

Ulster won the most recent meeting in Belfast, but the Bulls won their last two home fixtures against the Irish province by substantial margins.

Selection: Bulls -16 (10/11)

Benetton v Glasgow – Saturday, October 24, 15:00

This is an intriguing clash between a struggling Benetton side and a Glasgow team enjoying a much stronger start to the season. Glasgow are second in the URC table with 13 points from three matches, while Benetton sit 15th with five points. Glasgow will travel to Italy expecting to compete for the win, but Benetton’s home ground has proved a difficult venue for the Warriors in recent seasons.

The Italian side needs to turn competitive performances into victories. They have the talent to trouble Glasgow, particularly if they can establish their physical game and get their dangerous backs involved. Their attacking quality means they should not be underestimated, but defensive consistency will be vital against Glasgow’s fluid attack.

Glasgow have started the URC season strongly, beating Munster 26–20 away and Connacht 36–19 at home, with a 33–33 draw against Ulster in between. They also beat Sale Sharks 47–27 in the Champions Cup last weekend. The main question is whether Glasgow’s changes disrupt their attacking rhythm. Matthew Urwin’s first start is particularly interesting, but the experience around him should help.

Glasgow have won three of those five meetings, but Benetton’s two home victories demonstrate why the Warriors cannot take this fixture lightly.

Selection: Glasgow to win 1-5 Points (9/2)

Stormers v Scarlets – Saturday, October 24, 15:00

This is an interesting clash between a Stormers side building momentum at home and a Scarlets team that has started to find its feet after a difficult opening to the season.

The Stormers have won two of their first three URC matches. They followed those results with a 49–12 victory over Bristol Bears in the Champions Cup, demonstrating how dangerous they can be when their attack clicks. Stormers have made 11 changes to the side that beat Bristol, with some senior Springboks rested. The rotation introduces some uncertainty, particularly in the half-backs and second row, but the Stormers still have a powerful bench featuring Cobus Reinach, Deon Fourie and experienced locks.

Scarlets have shown signs of improvement after a difficult start to their URC campaign. They lost their opening two league games against Cardiff and the Dragons before edging Benetton 27–26 to record their first league victory. They then produced an impressive 47–14 win over Newcastle Red Bulls in the Challenge Cup.

The Stormers have won all five previous URC meetings listed above, including a convincing shutout in Llanelli last season.

Selection: Stormers -22 (10/11)

Leinster v Munster – Saturday, October 24, 18:00

Irish rugby’s biggest provincial rivalry returns to Dublin, with Leinster looking to avenge last season’s emphatic Munster victory at Croke Park.

Both provinces head into the derby on the back of morale-boosting European wins. Leinster defeated Clermont Auvergne 48–23 in France, while Munster beat Racing 92 in an emotionally charged Champions Cup encounter. The stage is set for a fiercely contested match between two sides with plenty to prove.

Leo Cullen’s side have had a mixed start to their URC campaign, losing their opening two matches against the Lions and Sharks before beating Cardiff. The headline selection news is the return of Jamison Gibson-Park, who makes his first appearance of the season after recovering from a groin injury. The return of Gibson-Park is a major boost. His speed at the base can help Leinster play at a higher tempo, while Carbery’s distribution and kicking give the hosts a different attacking dimension.

Munster arrive in Dublin with renewed confidence; their early-season league results include a win over the Bulls and a draw with Ulster, following an opening defeat to Glasgow. Munster have made seven changes to their starting XV following the European win. Munster’s fly-half options are particularly important, with Ireland international Jack Crowley sidelined by a vascular injury and expected to be unavailable until the new year.

Munster’s 31–14 win at Croke Park last October was a statement performance. Leinster responded with a narrow victory at Thomond Park in April, setting up another close match between the two.

Selection: Leinster -16.5 (4/5)

Ospreys v Dragons – Saturday, October 24, 19:45

This Welsh derby has extra significance for both teams. The Ospreys are looking to turn a difficult start into a winning run, while the Dragons arrive with confidence after a strong victory over Scarlets earlier in October.

The Ospreys have endured a difficult start to their URC campaign, losing their opening games against the Lions and Sharks during their South African tour before returning to Wales for the derby against Dragons. The Ospreys’ scrum and driving maul could be major weapons. They will want to keep the Dragons under pressure in their own half and avoid allowing the visitors to play with freedom.

The Dragons have made an encouraging start, collecting nine points from their first three URC matches. The Dragons’ biggest challenge is discipline. In the previous derby, penalties allowed the Ospreys to kick into the corner and apply pressure through their driving maul. They will need to limit those opportunities this time.

The Dragons are capable of winning this, but I give the Ospreys a slight edge on home soil.

Selection: Ospreys to win 1-5 Points (7/2)

URC Tips

  • Sharks to win 6-10 points (9/2)
  • Connacht -21 (10/11)
  • Edinburgh to win 1-5 points (9/2)
  • Bulls -16 (10/11)
  • Glasgow to win 1-5 points (9/2)
  • Stormers -22 (10/11)
  • Leinster -16.5 (4/5)
  • Ospreys to win 1-5 points (7/2)
  • Combined odds: 9376/1

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*Odds were correct at time of publishing the article

About the Author

Alan Marron
Alan Marron is one of BAR 1 Betting's in-house broadcasters. Alan has built up a large following on social media thanks to his strong tipping powers across Horse Racing, Football, Gaelic Games, and Rugby.