Cheltenham Festival 2026 – Day 4 Trends and Key Stats (Friday, March 13)
The 2026 Cheltenham Festival begins on Tuesday, March 10 and runs until Friday, March 13.
Often dubbed “horse racing’s Olympics,” the four-day meeting is the highlight of the National Hunt season and the biggest week of the year for racing fans and punters alike.
Ahead of Day 2, BAR 1 Betting broadcaster Will Reilly has looked at the key stats and trends for all seven races on Friday’s card to help point you towards a few potential winners.
The stats are thus far showing a small profit on the week of €1.40 to a €1 level-stake profit
Stats-based selections for Wednesday can be found at the end of this piece.
1.20PM – JCB TRIUMPH HURDLE
2M 179Y, GRADE 1, £150,000
- IRELAND HAS WON NINE OF THE LAST 12
- THERE HAVE BEEN 5 WINNING FAVS IN THE LAST 11 YEARS, INCLUDING LOSSIEMOUTH (11/8, 2023) AND VAUBAN (6/4, 2022)
- THREE OF THE LAST SEVEN WINNERS HAVE BEEN 12/1 OR BIGGER, INCLUDING PONIROS LAST YEAR AT 100/1 FOR WILLIE MULLINS
- 7 OF THE LAST 13 WINNERS HAVE BEEN 9/2 OR SHORTER
Poniros springs a 100/1 surprise in the 2025 Triumph Hurdle…
2PM – COUNTY HURDLE
2M179Y, £110,000, 5YO+
- 8 OF THE LAST 17 WINNERS HAVE BEEN RETURNED AT 20/1 OR BIGGER, INCLUDING FAIVOIR (33/1) IN 2023 – LAST YEAR’S WINNER, KARGESE (WILLIE MULLINS) WAS RETURNED AS THE 3/1 FAV
- THERE HAVE BEEN THREE 33/1 WINNERS IN THE LAST EIGHT YEARS – BELFAST BANTER (2021) AND MOHAAYED (2018) ARE THE OTHERS – ARCTIC FIRE WAS 20/1 WHEN HE WON IN 2017 AND WICKLOW BRAVE WAS 25/1 WHEN WINNING IN 2015 – FIVE OF THE LAST 11 WINNERS WERE RETURNED AT 20/1 OR BIGGER
- IRELAND HAS WON 11 OF THE LAST 17
- WILLIE MULLINS HAS WON 8 OF THE LAST 16
- DAN SKELTON HAS WON 4 OF THE LAST 10 AND FINISHED SECOND IN 2024
- 7 OF THE LAST 17 WINNERS CARRIED 11ST OR MORE TO VICTORY
- JOCKEY PAUL TOWNEND HAS WON FIVE OF THE LAST 11
- THERE HAVE BEEN THREE WINNING FAVS IN THE LAST 12 YEARS, BUT THEY HAVE COME IN THE LAST SIX YEARS, ALL TRAINED BY WILLIE MULLINS: STATE MAN (2022), SAINT ROI (2020), AND KARGESE (3/1 FAV, LAST YEAR)
- WILLIE MULLINS WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE FIRST, THIRD AND FOURTH HORSES HOME LAST YEAR
2.40PM – GRADE 2 LIBERTHINE MARES’ CHASE
2M4F 127Y, GRADE 2, £130,000, 5YO+
- THIS RACE HAS ONLY BEEN RUN FIVE TIMES AND WILLIE MULLINS HAS WON IT THREE TIMES, AND HE FINISHED SECOND IN BOTH 2023 AND 2024
- THE FIRST THREE WINNERS OF THE RACE WERE THE SECOND FAVOURITE FOR THE RACE, WHILE THE 2024 WINNER, LIMERICK LACE (3/1, GAVIN CROMWELL) WAS THIRD FAV, ALTHOUGH LAST YEAR’S WINNER, DINOBLUE (6/4 FAV), REDRESSED THE BALANCE LAST YEAR
- IRELAND HAS WON ALL FIVE RUNNINGS OF THE CONTEST
Will Dinoblue repeat her 2025 win in the Mares’ Chase? She is favourite to do so…
3.20PM – ALBERT BARTLETT NOVICES’ HURDLE
3 MILES, GRADE 1, £150,000, 5YO+
- JUST ONE WINNING FAV IN THE LAST 13 YEARS – AT FISHERS CROSS, 2013
- 9 OF THE LAST 12 WINNERS WERE RETURNED AT 14/1 OR BIGGER
- 7 OF THE LAST 12 WINNERS WERE 16/1 OR BIGGER, INCLUDING THREE 33/1 CHANCES AND A 50/1 WINNER – LAST YEAR’S WINNER, JASMIN DE VAUX (WILLIE MULLINS) WAS 6/1
4PM BOODLES CHELTENHAM GOLD CUP
3M 2F 70Y, NEW COURSE
- GALOPIN DES CHAMPS – TRAINED BY WILLIE MULLINS – WON IN 2023 AND 2024 AND FINISHED SECOND LAST YEAR TO INOTHEWAYURTHINKIN
- THERE HAVE BEEN SIX WINNING FAVS IN THE LAST 13, FOUR IN THE LAST SIX
- JUST 2 OF THE LAST 13 WINNERS WERE RETURNED AT BIGGER THAN 9/1
- IRELAND HAS WON THE LAST SEVEN AND NINE OF THE LAST TEN AND, INDEED, 10 OF THE LAST 12, AND THEY’VE HAD THE FIRST 2 HOME IN SEVEN OF THE LAST 12 AND THE FIRST THREE HOME IN THREE OF THE LAST TEN
4.40PM – THE PRINCESS ROYAL CHALLENGE CUP OPEN HUNTERS’ CHASE
3M 2F 70Y, £50,000
- IRELAND HAS WON SEVEN OF THE LAST 13
- THE UK HAS WON 6 OF THE LAST 9 AND WERE ALSO 2ND IN 2020 AND 2021
- 4 WINNING FAVS IN THE LAST 12 YEARS
- ONLY THREE 6YOS HAVE WON THE RACE SINCE 1950
- 8YOs HAVE WON 10 TIMES SINCE 1971 BUT THERE ARE SOME VERY GOOD ONES AMONGST THEM, INCLUDING ELEGANT LORD, GRITTAR, ELIOGARTY, LOVELY CITIZEN, CREDIT CALL AND SALSIFY – LAST YEAR’S WINNER, WONDERWALL (28/1), TRAINED IN TIPPERARY BY SAM CURLING, WAS NINE
- THERE HAVE BEEN TWO 66/1 WINNERS IN THE LAST SIX YEARS, PLUS LAST YEAR’S WINNER (28/1) AND PACHA DU POLDER (2018, 25/1)
- SIX OF THE LAST NINE WINNERS WERE RETURNED AT 16/1 OR BIGGER
- A HORSE AGED 10 OR 11 HAS WON IN NINE OF THE LAST 11 YEARS – THE WINNING RUN BEING BROKEN IN 2024 AND THWARTED ALSO LAST YEAR
THIS CENTURY (25 RUNNINGS) HAVE SEEN WINS FOR THE FOLLOWING AGES:
6YO – 1
7YO – 2
8YO – 3
9YO – 6
10YO – 8
11YO – 4
12YO – 0
13YO – 1
5.20PM – THE MARTIN PIPE CONDITIONAL JOCKEYS’ HANDICAP HURDLE
2M 4F 56Y, 4YO+, £75,000
- THERE HAS BEEN NO WINNING FAV SINCE SIR DES CHAMPS IN 2011 (9/2) BUT TEN OF THE LAST 13 WINNERS WERE RETURNED AT 12/1 OR SHORTER
- GORDON ELLIOTT HAS WON FOUR OF THE LAST NINE (AT SPS OF 5/1, 11/1, 12/1 AND, LAST YEAR, 9/2)
- PAUL NICHOLLS HAS WON 2 OF THE LAST 13 AND WILLIE MULLINS HAS WON 3 OF THE LAST 12 – WILLIE WAS THIRD AND FIFTH IN 2024 FROM HIS TWO RUNNERS, BUT TENTH WAS THE BEST POSITION ACHIEVED LAST YEAR FROM HIS FOUR RUNNERS
- WINNING SPS IN THE LAST 11 (MOST-RECENT FIRST) – 9/2, 5/1, 6/1, 12/1, 8/1, 25/1, 5/1, 11/1, 12/1, 14/1, 7/1, 12/1 AND 16/1
- 15 OF THE LAST 17 HAVE BEEN WON BY A 5YO OR 6YO – THE OTHER TWO WERE 7YOS
- CONDITIONAL JOCKEYS BASED IN IRELAND HAVE WON 8 OF THE LAST 12
- THE LAST WINNING FAV OF THE RACE WAS IN 2011 BUT TEN OF THE LAST 11 WINNERS WERE RETURNED AT 12/1 OR SHORTER, AND TEN OF THE LAST 13 WINNERS WERE AGED 5 OR 6
**ONLY THREE WINNERS AMONG THE LAST ELEVEN HAD RUN LESS THAN 7 TIMES PRIOR TO THEIR WIN, WITH THE THREE BEING VERY GOOD INDEED – GALOPIN DES CHAMPS, DON POLI AND, IN 2024, IROKO
- LAST YEAR’S WINNER, WODHOOH, HAS SINCE WON GRADE 2 AND GRADE HURDLES; THE 2024 WINNER, BETTER DAYS AHEAD, HAS SINCE WON A GRADE 2 NOVICE CHASE, WHILE THE FOURTH, ANSWER TO KAYF, WON THIS YEAR’S €100,000 BAR 1 BETTING TROYTOWN HANDICAP CHASE AT NAVAN, AND THE THIRD, QUAI DE BOURBON, FINISHED THIRD IN LAST YEAR’S IRISH GRAND NATIONAL.
- THE 2023 WINNER, IROKO, IS FAVOURITE FOR THIS YEAR’S AINTREE GRAND NATIONAL, WHILE THE 2022 WINNER, BANBRIDGE, WON THE 2024 GRADE 1 KING GEORGE VI CHASE AT KEMPTON, AND THE 2021 WINNER IS THE FABULOUS DUAL-CHELTENHAM GOLD CUP WINNER GALOPIN DES CHAMPS, ONE OF THE GREATEST CHASERS WE HAVE EVER SEEN.
IT’S PROVEN TO BE QUITE A RACE, HASN’T IT?
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STATS-BASED SELECTIONS (based on the above data)…
1.20pm – A tricky race but Ireland has a good recent record in the race and there’s a better than 50% chance that the winner will be 9/2 or shorter. Not many fall into that category this year (and last year’s winner was 100/1). We’ll opt for PROACTIF – As at midday, Proactif was a drifter (9/2 – 6/1) with Highland Crystal (Gordon Elliott) being backed. A tricky enough race.
2pm – Willie Mullins, Dan Skelton and Paul Towned all fare well on the recent stats, as does Ireland. Mullins and Skelton have the top-two in the betting. We’ll side with Mullins’ KARBAU, who will be Paul Townend’s only ride in a handicap this week at the Festival
2.40pm – Ireland has won all five runnings of the race, with the second-favourite winning the first three and the third favourite winning in 2024. The favourite, though, DINOBLUE won last year and she is back to defend her crown. She must have a great chance, but the stats point to third-favourite SPINDLEBERRY
3,20pm – This has not been a good record for the favourite based on recent stats. Furthermore, a price of 14/1 or bigger for the winner is a strong stat. There have been seven Irish winners and three British winners in the last 10 years. We’ll plump for MONDOUI’BOY
4pm – The Gold Cup, the blue riband event of the meeting. Ireland has a great recent record in the race, as have horses returned at 9/1 or shorter. That leaves five horses from which to choose. GAELIC WARRIOR fits the stats bill.
4.40pm – The hunters’ chase. Both Ireland and Britain have done well recently, as have 9yo’s and 10yo’s. Runner-up last year, ITS ON THE LINE can go one better today.
5.20pm – Much as this has not been a good race recently for the favourite, horses of 12/1 or shorter have a decent record. This leaves six horses from which to choose (as of Friday morning), five of which hail from Ireland. You have to consider WENDROCK (Gordon Elliott), based on the stats, but we’ll give a narrow vote to JUMP ALLEN
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