Cheltenham Festival 2026 – Day 1 Trends and Key Stats (Tuesday, March 10)
The 2026 Cheltenham Festival begins on Tuesday, March 10 and runs through to Friday, March 13.
Often dubbed “horse racing’s Olympics,” the four-day festival is the highlight of the National Hunt season and the biggest week of the year for racing fans and punters alike.
Ahead of this year’s meeting, BAR 1 Betting Broadcaster Will Reilly has looked at key statistics and trends for every race on Day 1 to help point you towards a few potential winners.
All races on the opening day will be run on Cheltenham’s Old Course.
Tune into BAR 1 Betting’s 2026 Cheltenham Preview Podcast on Spotify.
1:20 – Supreme Novices’ Hurdle
Grade 1 – £150,000 – 2m 87y
The Supreme Novices’ Hurdle traditionally opens the Cheltenham Festival and regularly provides clues for the rest of the week.
Key trends and stats:
- Willie Mullins has dominated this race in recent years, winning 6 times since 2013 and finishing second four times from 41 runners.
- Mullins won the race last year with Kopek Des Bordes, who is now favourite for the Arkle later on Day 1.
- The champion trainer could run several contenders this year including Mighty Park, Leader d’Allier, King Rasko Grey, Sober, Sortudo, Saint Baco, Too Bossy For Us, and Free Spirit.
- Irish-trained runners have won 16 of the last 25 renewals, although only six were sent off as the outright favourite.
- 11 of the last 13 winners started at 6/1 or shorter, but only three were clear favourites (plus two joint-favourites).
- Nicky Henderson has won three of the last ten runnings. His contender this year is Old Park Star, currently top of the betting.
- Join BAR 1 Betting before the start of the 2026 Cheltenham Festival and avail of up to €80 in free bets!
2:00 – Arkle Novices’ Chase
Grade 1 – £200,000 – 1m 7f 199y
The Arkle is one of the most prestigious novice chases of the season.
Key trends:
- Willie Mullins has won 7 of the last 11 runnings.
- The current favourite Kopek Des Bordes is trained by Mullins and looks set to be ridden by Paul Townend.
- Irish-trained horses have won 7 of the last 11 Arkle renewals.
- The favourite has a strong record, winning 10 of the last 14, with seven of those winners going off odds-on.
- Paul Townend has ridden two of the last three winners and three of the last seven.
- The current second favourite Lulamba is a five-year-old. The last horse of that age to win the Arkle was Voy Por Ustedes in 2006.
2:40 – Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle
£80,000 – 2m 87y – 4YO
The Fred Winter is often one of the most unpredictable races of the entire festival.
Key trends:
- Only one favourite has won in the last 13 years.
- Eight of the last 13 winners returned at 10/1 or bigger.
- Last year’s winner Puturhandstogether went off at 17/2.
- Six of the last 13 winners were priced at 25/1 or bigger, including Jeff Kidder at 80/1 in 2021.
- Irish-trained horses have won the last eight renewals, though only one of those winners was favourite.
- Joseph O’Brien has won the race for the last two years with Puturhandstogether and Lark In The Mornin.
- Potential runners for O’Brien this year include Glen To Glen, Dignam and Kizlyar.
3:20 – Ultima Handicap Chase
£150,000 – 3m 1f
The Ultima Handicap Chase is always one of the most competitive handicaps of the week.
Key trends:
- Only two outright favourites have won in the last 15 years, plus one joint favourite (Corach Rambler in 2023).
- Last year’s winner Myretown returned at 13/2 favourite and is set to run again from a 15lb higher mark.
- No Irish-trained horse has won the race in the last 16 years.
- Lucinda Russell has dominated recently, winning three of the last four runnings with Corach Rambler (2022 & 2023) and Myretown (2025).
- Corach Rambler went on to win the 2023 Grand National at Aintree.
- Future National winner Noble Yeats finished ninth in this race in 2022 from a mark of 147.
4:00 – Champion Hurdle
Grade 1 – £450,000 – 2m 87y
The Champion Hurdle is the feature race on Day 1 and one of the most prestigious races in National Hunt racing.
Key trends:
- 10 favourites have won in the last 15 years.
- The New Lion currently heads the betting market.
- Nicky Henderson has won four of the last nine runnings, but has no runner this year after Constitution Hill and Sir Gino were ruled out.
- Willie Mullins has won five of the last 15.
- Possible Mullins contenders include Lossiemouth, Poniros and Anzadam, although Lossiemouth also holds an entry in the Mares’ Hurdle.
- Only three of the last 15 winners started at double-figure odds:
- Golden Ace (25/1) – 2025
- Espoir D’Allen (16/1) – 2019
- Rock On Ruby (11/1) – 2012
- Nine of the last 13 winners started at 5/2 or shorter.
4:40 – Plate Handicap Chase
£150,000 – 2m 4f 44y
The Plate Handicap Chase regularly produces a well-backed gamble.
Key trends:
- Five favourites have won in the last 17 years, including four of the last eight.
- Madara and McLaurey currently head the betting.
- Irish-trained runners have won five of the last 10 renewals.
- McLaurey, trained by Emmet Mullins, represents Ireland again this year.
- Nine of the last 19 winners were priced at 16/1 or bigger, including:
- Seddon (20/1) – 2023
- Coole Cody (22/1) – 2022
- Despite that, recent winners have often been towards the front of the market.
- The typical winning age is 6 to 9, with 10 of the last 12 winners in this bracket, including last year’s winner Jagwar (6yo).
- 13 of the last 17 winners carried 10st 13lb or less, including nine of the last 13.
- McLaurey fits this trend with a weight of 10st 7lb, while Madara carries 11st.
5:20 – National Hunt Challenge Cup Novices’ Handicap Chase
£100,000 – 3m 5f 201y
The final race on Day 1 is a demanding staying test for novice chasers.
Key trends:
- Irish-trained runners have won 9 of the last 13 renewals.
- Emmet Mullins trains the current favourite Backmersackme.
- Willie Mullins (4) and Gordon Elliott (3) have combined to win seven of the last 13 runnings.
- Willie Mullins does not currently have a runner entered this year.
- Gordon Elliott could run Kurasso Blue, The Enabler and Will Do.
- Before Gaillard Du Mesnil (10/11 favourite) in 2023, the previous winning favourite was Back In Focus in 2013.
- Despite that, eight of the last 11 winners started at 8/1 or shorter.
- Recent winners include Haiti Couleurs (7/2 joint-favourite) and Corbetts Cross (15/8).
- Seven-year-olds have won 7 of the last 11 renewals.
- Leading contenders Backmersackme, Newton Tornado and Wade Out are all 7-year-olds, fitting the key trend.
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