It was another profitable week for those who followed last week’s column so LOI TV Commentator and host of Between the Stripes LOI podcast, Kieran Burke is back again this week to try and find us more winners.
GALWAY UNITED v SHELBOURNE, Fri, 7.45, LOI TV
I’m not going to lie, this week’s fixtures have a much tougher look about them from a punting perspective, but with the column in good form over the last while we go again starting with the league leaders Shelbourne’s trip to Galway on Friday night.
Despite a loss of form recently, Shelbourne go into the weekend four points clear at the top with just seven games left to play. Damien Duff has positioned his side brilliantly to win a first league title in 18 years but the Reds are definitely starting to show signs of weariness as the finish line comes into sight.
The loss of key players Gavin Molloy and Will Jarvis has certainly taken some of the edge away from this Shelbourne team but Aidan O’Brien’s arrival has proved to be positive with the former Ireland international scoring twice in five appearances.
If you haven’t watched Shelbourne this season, their football isn’t always pretty but the players on the pitch empty their tanks and beyond over 90 minutes, to borrow a famous Neil Warnock catchphrase they “die for the three points.”
Similar can be said to describe Galway. A throwback side who make no apologies for their less than dazzling approach to the game, John Caulfield’s side performed well in defeat against champions Shamrock Rovers on Monday.
A sloppy own goal by Garry Buckley cost the Tribesmen in the end and they must now dust themselves down and get ready for a second battle against Dublin visitors this week. The fact that only bottom side Dundalk have scored fewer goals than either of these sides again gives you an insight into their approaches, it’s be solid first and worry about opening teams up after that. Unsurprisingly, this is a meeting of the two top defences in the division.
Shelbourne have had the upper hand so far this season with two wins and one defeat against Galway in the league while Shels knocked Galway out of the cup on penalties last month. Over 90 minutes, none of the four games produced over 2.5 goals while both teams to score would have been a losing bet in all four matches.
With Shelbourne’s two main title rivals, Derry City and Shamrock Rovers, facing off at the same time on Friday, a point here would be a welcome result for Shelbourne. Galway have had an amazing season back at this level following last season’s demolition of the First Division but 5/4 is way too short of a price for me against a Shels team who have lost just 4 of 29 league matches.
BEST BET: Shelbourne double chance (1/2)
CORK CITY v FINN HARPS, Fri, 7.45, LOI TV
Congratulations to Tim Clancy and Cork City who have already secured their status as First Division champions with plenty of games to spare. Bar One Racing has a shop under the shadows of Turners Cross so do be sure to pop in before Friday’s game against Finn Harps if you’re heading along.
Any fears over City players already being on the beach were quickly dispatched thanks to a 4-1 demolition of new Munster rivals Kerry FC in Tralee last week.
As for Finn Harps, the Donegal side still hope to join Cork City in the Premier Division next season with Darren Murphy’s men pushing hard for a place in the promotion play-offs. Last week’s 1-0 win against bottom outfit Longford Town was Harps third straight win having gone on a dreadful five match losing run prior to that mini sequence of wins. With the likes of Athlone Town and Bray beginning to flounder in front of them, Harps find themselves just two points outside of the top five.
However, I did attend last week’s game in Ballyboffey and for a game between a promotion chasing side and a team rooted to the foot of the table, there was very little between the sides. Longford missed a gilt-edged chance on the stroke of half-time before giving away a sloppy penalty moments after the restart. Neither team was capable of creating genuine goal scoring chances with the bobbly Finn Park pitch not helping matters in a fairly forgettable contest.
Scoring goals had been Harps big issue during that recent losing run with only the bottom three sides scoring fewer goals than Finn Harps this term. Cork City are not only the leagues top scorers but they are by far and away the team with the best defensive record having conceded just 13 goals in 31 league matches, that is a remarkable statistic.
Cork City have won the last three H2H’s to nil (1-0, 1-0, 0-2) and are unbeaten across all four clashes this season.
BEST BET: Cork City win to nil (21/20).
LONGFORD TOWN v WEXFORD FC, Sat, 7.30, LOI TV
As mentioned, I did take in Longford Town’s trip to Finn Park last Friday night and while De Town players again worked their socks off, there was a clear lack of quality on show. That luck of cutting edge was most apparent in the final third with lone striker Fran Campbell appearing low on confidence and unable to play his way into the game or offer his team a platform to play off.
As a result, Longford had to concede lots of possession and territory and therefore they were limited in their attacking opportunities. A return to Bishopsgate and a better playing surface should help the Midlanders, who have gathered three of their four wins at home this season, including a second win of the campaign against Bray in Longford’s most recent home game a few weeks ago.
That Bray game was similar to the Harps game in truth, two teams working hard but not having the quality required to put on much of a show.
Wexford FC have shown plenty of quality in recent weeks, after a slow start to the season, James Keddy’s team have found form at the right time with a seven match winning streak across all competitions brought to an end last night following a scoreless draw at home to fellow promotion chasers Bray.
Wexford’s last defeat came on July 4th, 12 games ago and it was against the then champions elect Cork City. Over the last five and ten league matches, Wexford FC are the divisions most in form team outside of the newly crowned champions.
Wexford are unbeaten across their last four meetings with Longford and on all known form, that record should be extended further on Saturday night.
BEST BET: Wexford FC (1/2)
Signing off for this week’s column, I just want to say how relieved I am that Dundalk FC’s future has been secured (for now). For an institution the size of Dundalk FC to have found themselves in a position where their loyal supporters were stood outside Oriel Park on Monday afternoon fully expecting that their club was to fold is shameful and major questions need to be asked regarding the FAI’s processes when it comes to new owners buying clubs in Ireland.
Dundalk FC are not out of the woods just yet, hopefully the new owners can find a way to steer the club through these choppy seas and onto a stronger and more stable future, even if that means a few years of rebuilding on the pitch.
Until next week, thanks for reading.
Kieran.