Having correctly predicted the outcomes to Liverpool v Chelsea and Everton v Newcastle in midweek League Cup ties, Will Reilly gives his views, and verdicts, on Saturday’s eight Premier League matches.
His recommended treble can be found at the bottom of the page.
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Chelsea v Man Utd, Sat 12.30pm, live on TNT Sports 1, HBO Max
Hard-to-predict Chelsea meet Man Utd, a team in disarray. Chelsea have kept just one clean sheet in their last 24 matches but find scoring a lot easier, although they went out of the League Cup on penalties on Wednesday and failed to score against Tottenham last Saturday. They are becoming difficult to predict. Cole Palmer missed that midweek match through suspension but is okay for this one. Unfortunately for the Blues, João Pedro will be missing for “a few weeks” and key defender Maxence Lacroix is now sidelined with a hamstring issue. On the upside, Moises Caicedo and Pep Chavarria are available, and surely Estêvão Willian will get a chance at some point.
Much of the above will give United some hope. To the surprise of many, Michael Carrick remains as head coach and peace has broken out between him and Bruno Fernandes. Will a revival be sparked at Stamford Bridge? On the flipside, Man Utd have looked disjointed and lacking in intensity in their last six games. They are now winless in eight and have won just two of their 12 games this season. On the road, though, they have drawn three and lost three, but have scored more than once on just one occasion in those matches, away to Everton in a 2-2 draw.
Verdict: Chelsea to win (9/10) (I’ll give them another chance). Score prediction, 3-1
Bournemouth v Leeds, Sat 3pm
Bournemouth have very much picked up of late, winning their last five matches without conceding a goal. Four of these games have been played at home, where they have lost just once this season from eight games (v Liverpool, 1-0 on Sept 20). It’s worth being reminded that they have lost just three of their last 32 matches in all competitions.
Leeds have lost just two of their ten games this season (winning three) but have conceded more than one goal in just two of these games (6-3 in the League Cup v Chelsea, and 2-1 v Arsenal in the league). They have proven their resilience this year by drawing 1-1 at Brighton and, most recently, 0-0 at Sunderland. They are no pushovers but neither are they free-scoring. A long trip to the south coast to the Cherries will provide a stern test for them.
Verdict: Bournemouth to win (11/10). Score prediction, 2-0
Brentford v Nottingham Forest, Sat 3pm
Following their midweek League Cup exit, Brentford have lost twice all season, although these defeats have come in their last four matches, none of which they have managed to win. However, all told, they have 4 wins, 5 draws, and two defeats to their name in all comps this season. They have, though, kept just two clean sheets in those eleven games, although they have scored at least one goal in each of them, scoring more than one in six.
At home in the league, they have won two, drawn one and lost one, and can list 3-0 wins against Tottenham and Chelsea aamong their successes.
On the road in the league this season, Forest have lost just once in four games, 3-1 at Crystal Palace when they led and had a great chance to go 2-0 ahead before succumbing to two goals just before half-time and then a third on 59 minutes. There are certainly signs of progress from them and they have scored in all four of their away games in the league this season.
Verdict: Brentford to win (evens). Score prediction, 2-1
Coventry v Sunderland, Sat 3pm
Coventry have yet to draw a game this season (2 wins, six losses, just six goals scored, 15 conceded), but have shown some attacking flair, only to more than match it with careless defending. Roared on by a fully-supportive and vocal set of fans, their best chance of gaining points this season comes at home.
Sunderland are now winless in their last six league games, drawing two and losing four, and have failed to score in four of their last five in the league. They did, though, beat Brentford 3-2 in the last-16 of the League Cup on Wednesday and their main striker, Brian Bobbey (three goals from six starts this season, which came via a hat-trick v Man City) returned to action against Leeds last Sunday (he lasted 65 minutes) after missing their two previous games. He also missed the League Cup tie. He is an important player for them, giving the attack a strong focal point. A leaky Sky Blues defence will give the Mackems cause for optimism on their travels.
Verdict: Sunderland might just nick it (5/4). Score prediction, 1-2
Hull City v Ipswich Town, Sat 3pm
I must admit that I have underestimated Hull, who have been tough to beat with two wins, five draws and three defeats in their ten games in all comps this season. Only three of the ten games, though, have produced over 2.5 goals. They have kept three clean sheets in those games, but have now conceded in each of their last five games and are, indeed, winless in their last five in the league. Their low shots-on-target count has been noticeable (17 in their last six games).
Ipswich managed their first draw of the season last Friday (1-1 v Nottm Forest). Prior to that they had won four and lost five. They have failed to keep a clean sheet this season and have conceded two-or-more goals in four of their eight league games this season, and in three of their four away games in the league.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals (19/20). Hull could edge it, 1-0.
Man City v Brighton, Sat 3pm, live on Premier Sports 1
Brighton travelled to Manchester City for a League Cup last-16 tie on Wednesday, which they lost on penalties. Brighton have impressed this season and currently sit in third place in the table, although they were beaten 2-0 at Liverpool last Sunday. So, that’ll be three trips to the North West in the space of a week from their South East location. Harsh. No doubt, though, they are a very good side, although a trip to Getafe next Thursday means that they are racking up the air miles.
City will be licking their wounds following a defeat at Aston Villa last Saturday, a result that ended their 100% record in the league this season. At home in the league, they have won all four of their matches, scoring eleven and conceding six. This will, though, be their toughest home test and an on-song Brighton side would give anyone a very good match. It’s three goals from four home league appearances for Erling Haaland this season and he, of course, remains a potent goal threat. Brighton have scored ten goals on the road in the league this season.
Verdict: City to edge it (8/13). Prediction, over 2.5 goals, although that is just 4/9.
Tottenham Hotspur v Crystal Palace, Sat 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports Main Event, Sky Sports Premier League
Back-to-back league wins have got Tottenham’s season up and running and they will be keen to build on that here. Having failed to score in their first two home league matches this season, they have now scored five in their last two, which offers further cause for optimism.
Palace have won once, drawn once and lost twice on the road in the league so far this season, but have failed to score in three of those games. A confident Spurs side will be looking forward to being at home again, not least to draw some applause for having beaten arch-rivals Chelsea in their most-recent game.
Verdict: Tottenham to win (4/7). Score prediction, 2-0.
Aston Villa v Fulham, Sat 8pm, live on Sky Sports Main Event , Sky Sports Premier League
A late kick-off to enjoy, particularly for Villa fans. Their team beat Man City 2-1 at home in their most recent league game and they had won seven of their last nine matches in all comps ahead of their League Cup exit on Wednesday, and three of their last four in the league (drawing the other one, 2-2 at home to Brentford). They have, though, kept just two clean sheets in those nine games. Nicolas Jackson has scored seven goals in his last eight starts, including two against Man City last Saturday. John Mamzambi has chipped in with three in his last five starts.
Fulham have won their last two league games – 1-0 at home to Hull, and 1-0 away to Coventry – and have failed to score in just two of their ten games this season, although they have yet to score more than one goal in their four away games in the league. They are currently 15th in the table, with Villa in ninth, although Fulham would go above them with a win. Curiously, Villa have scored just nine goals in eight league games this season, conceding 12. The direction of travel, though, is away from the impression that this might leave and, in my view, they will start Saturday’s match as a warm favourite.
Verdict: Villa to win (9/10). Score prediction, 3-1.
Recommended Treble: Bournemouth (11/10), Tottenham (4/7) and Aston Villa (9/10) which works out at 5.27/1
**Prices correct as at 16:00 on Fri 30 Oct
