Match preview – Arsenal v Newcastle United
Sat 25 April, KO 5.30pm (Sky Sports)
TITLE RACE
With Man City occupied by an FA Cup semi-final on Saturday, Arsenal have the chance to go back to the top of the Premier League table.
Level on points and goal-difference with City, Arsenal are second only because they have scored less goals in the league this season than their title rivals.
It’s a race that could be going down to the wire.
JITTERY GUNNERS
Arsenal have looked jittery recently. In the last five weeks, they have lost their two league games, lost the League Cup final, and also been dumped out of the FA Cup by Championship-side Southampton. That adds up to four losses in their last six matches.
In the build-up to this run, they had lost just one of their previous 27 matches – A 2-3 defeat against Manchester United on January 25, winning 20 of them and keeping eleven clean sheets.
They have been involved in just three 0-0 matches all season. In 16 of the 27 matches referred to above, both teams scored, and in 17 of them over 2.5 goals were scored.
UNHAPPY APRIL FOR ARSENAL
Arsenal will have played two league games before Man City play their next one. Not so long back, they were ten points clear of City. They now have the chance to go six points clear. Can they take it?
One worrying stat is that 18% of Arsenal’s league defeats under Mikel Arteta have come in April (nine of 51), and they’ve already lost three of their five matches (all comps) this month.
On the upside, Arsenal do not have to travel outside of London in their five remaining league fixtures, three of which will be played at home.
Can they keep their nerve and focus and rise to the challenge? That’s the question.
GUNNERS GOALS DRYING UP
Arsenal have failed to score more than two goals in any of their last 12 matches, and they have scored two goals in just four of them; they have picked a bad time to dry up in front of goal.
FRUSTRATING GEORDIES
Newcastle remain a source of immense frustration to their fans. Despite their wealthy owners’ aims of transforming the club into a top-table team, they have become hamstrung by the constraints imposed by financial fair play.
Last season’s League Cup win seems a distant memory, and as the end of the season approaches many of their players are being linked with other clubs.
A place in one of the European competitions for next season looks a forlorn hope and their season is ending with a whimper, not a bang. Evidence of this is provided by their league form – three wins and eight losses in their last eleven games. Furthermore, they have lost their last four league games.
Rubbing further salt into the wound is that Newcastle boss Eddie Howe has never managed a side that has won at the Emirates Stadium – one draw and nine defeats.
LATE TOON CONCESSIONS
Curiously, Newcastle have scored in ten of those eleven games referred to above, although they have kept just one clean sheet in them. In seven of the eleven they have conceded a goal in the 80th minute or later.
INJURY NEWS
Arsenal
Bukayo Saka (Achilles) will probably miss the game, but he is closing in on fitness.
Merino (foot) will miss the match, although he is now walking without crutches.
Timber (groin) and Calafiore (knock) are being assessed and could be available.
Newcastle
Joelinton (suspended), Krafth (knee), Schär (ankle) and Livramento (thigh) will miss the game.
Gordon (hip) is being assessed.
HEAD-TO-HEADS
Newcastle have failed to win in their last 13 visits to the Emirates in the Premier League (one draw, 12 losses). Furthermore, they have scored just one goal in their last nine league visits to Arsenal.
The last time Newcastle won away to Arsenal in the league was in 2010, when Andy Carroll got the only goal of the game. Prior to this they had last won at Arsenal in 2002 (the score was 2-0).
All in all, in their last 21 league visits to Arsenal, Newcastle have been beaten on 18 occasions and won just twice. They have failed to score in 14 of the 21 games.
Ten of the 21 games produced over 2.5 goals
GOAL THREATS
Arsenal
Kai Havertz (3 goals in Arsenal’s last nine matches, all comps, only five of which he has started) and Viktor Gyökeres (10 goals in his last 19 matches, all comps, only 13 of which he has started) have been their key players recently.
Newcastle
William Osula has scored in each of the Toon’s last two games and in three of his last seven appearances, only four of which he started.
Scorers in their last 10 games, all comps, have been Anthony Gordon (3 goals), Anthony Elanga (2), Harvey Barnes (2), with one apiece for Jacob Ramsey, Jacob Murphy, Sandro Tonali, Joelinton and Sven Botman have been their other scorers.
VERDICT
The stats can only point one way and that is for an Arsenal win.
Twelve of the last 20 league meetings between the sides at the Emirates have finished 1-0, 2-0 or 3-0.
A score of 2-0 is the suggested correct-score option, and Viktor Gyökeres is nominated as the most-likely scorer in the match.