With two winning selections from three picks in his most recent LOI tipping piece LOI TV Commentator & host of Between the Stripes LOI podcast Kieran Burke looks to build on his level stakes profit of +5.63 so far this season.
DERRY CITY v DROGHEDA UNITED – Fri, 7.45, LOI TV
It’s sixth against top at the Brandywell on Friday night yet it is the league leaders Drogheda United who ate chalked up as massive 4/1 outsiders by the odds compilers here. Despite suffering just one defeat so far this season and winning again at home to Waterford last week Drogheda United continue to be under respected by traders and pundits alike.
Kevin Doherty’s team reclaimed top spot after a 2-0 win over the Blues last Friday but their lead at the top should be greater as they played Cork City off the Turners Cross pitch the week previous only for some controversial decisions and slack finishing causing the Drogs to leave two points behind.
Last season’s FAI Cup winners have only conceded four goals in their 8 league matches, that is fewer than any other side in the division. Of course, Drogheda kept a clean sheet in last year’s FAI Cup final against Derry City and the confidence that shutout leading to silverware has given United is clear to see.
Tiernan Lynch was not in charge of Derry for that game at the Aviva last season but after a sluggish start his team has started to find their feet as displayed by the powerful showing at home to Cork City last time out.
The Candystripes have often labored this season despite having plenty of possession but last Friday they used the football well and won the game 2-1 with an XG of 3.11 (the highest expected goals figure posted by any team in the Premier Division on matchday 8).
Michael Duffy has hit top form too with the former Dundalk man scoring three goals in his last four games for Derry City. However, Derry may need their wizard on the wing to be the point of difference again as we’ve seen the Foylesiders struggle against well organised teams in recent seasons especially Drogheda.
The Drogs have come out on top in the last two clashes with the Candystripes claiming just two wins from the last six meetings.
Given the recent dry spell of weather the Brandywell’s tacky plastic pitch could prove to be a problem for the home side who will need to move the ball at speed if they are to break down the stubborn Drogs.
BEST BET: Drogheda United double chance win/draw (Evs) +1pt
SHELBOURNE v BOHEMIANS – FRI, 7.45, Virgin Media Two
Bohemians much needed 4-2 win at home to Sligo Rovers last week is likely to only provide under fire boss Alan Reynolds with some temporary respite as the Gypsies go to the home of the league champions for the live TV game this week.
That game at Dalymount Park saw a much depleted Sligo team come from 2-0 down to level up proceedings before half-time only for two goals inside the last 16 minutes to swing the game back Bohs way. The last goal only came on 96 minutes and it was a freak goal from almost the half-way line scored by the brilliant Dawson Devoy. Without Devoy and Ross Tierney, who scored twice, this looks a very ordinary Bohs team at present.
While the champions have claimed just one win from their last six matches they displayed reminders of their quality in the draw away to title favourites St.Pat’s last week and could have maybe shaded it in the second half.
That was an ok result for Shels given Pat’s title credentials and Damien Duff’s men have only been beaten once this season by high-flying Drogheda.
Simply put, this Shelbourne team are far too hardy for a Bohs team with the softest of underbellies.
BEST BET: Shelbourne (23/20) NAP +1pt
SLIGO ROVERS v GALWAY UNITED – Sat, 7.45, LOI TV
The first Connacht derby of the 2025 campaign takes place at the Showgrounds this weekend but the timing of this fixture couldn’t be worse for the hosts as Sligo Rovers already light squad has been absolutely decimated through both injuries and suspensions.
The Bit O’Red put on a brave display away to Bohs last week but they face a much tougher task here as Galway United make the short trip across the West still licking their wounds from their first defeat last week at home to Shamrock Rovers.
The Hoops big game experience helped tip the contest in their favour but Galway should be viewing this local derby as an ideal opportunity to bounce back given Sligo are currently the league’s bottom side.
While recent talk of a title challenge by Galway may have proved premature there is no reason John Caulfield’s men can’t challenge for a European place this season and victory away to struggling Sligo would further boost their continental charge.
BEST BET: Galway United (11/10) +1 pt
DUNDALK FC v COBH RAMBLERS – Fri, 7.45, LOI TV
Generally I try to stay away from odds on shots in these columns, otherwise I’d have also put up Shamrock Rovers and St.Pat’s this week, but Dundalk FC look the closest thing to a guaranteed winner most weeks in the First Division.
Having maybe not blown anyone away in the first few matches as they steadily found their feet back at this level Dundalk did blow away Wexford FC at Oriel Park in their most recent home game (3-0) before they headed to UCD and claimed a well thought out 0-1 victory on the disgraceful UCD Bowl pitch.
Dundalk weren’t impressive in terms of the football they played but the fact they were willing to put their principles to one side and adapt to the almost unplayable conditions shows a level of maturity for what is still a developing team being guided by a rookie manager at this level.
Dundalk have conceded just four goals all season and now appear to be finding their shooting boots. As for Cobh, they suffered a disappointing turnover at home to Wexford last week, that result came just days after a worrying statement regarding the clubs ownership.
While Oriel Park lost its fear factor in the Premier Division last season there is a sense of that intimidation returning in the second tier which Dundalk should win at a canter.
BEST BET: Dundalk FC (17/20) +2pts
KIERAN’S LOI ACCA
Shelbourne, Drogheda double chance, St.Pat’s, Shamrock Rovers, Galway United, Dundalk (pays over 36/1)