The race will be run at Naas Racecourse on Sunday March 10th at 4.37pm
Here’s a look at the entries, with some stats and a selection at the end.
ESPANITO BELLO – He won the Leinster National last year by 7.5 lengths when rated 140. He’s now rated 149. In second that day was HISTORY OF FASHION, who will be 3lbs better off at the weights (he will be racing from five pounds out of the weights).
WILLIE MULLINS has three runners in the race – BRONN, who was Grade 1-placed as a novice chaser and ran well for a long way in the Thyestes Chase last time. MINELLA COCOONER, who was Grade 1-placed over hurdles and finished third, beaten 14.5 lengths, to American Mike in the Ten Up Novice Chase at Navan last time out. He’ll be having his first run in a handicap in the Leinster National and, finally, ONTEHROPES, who had been off for 699 days before his last two runs but won the Munster National off 141 in 2021 and is now rated 142. He will race in a tongue-tie for the first time on Sunday.
GORDON ELLIOTT has two runners, which are DIOL KER, who won the Leinster National for Noel Meade off 137 in 2022 and is now rated 142, and FRONTAL ASSAULT, who finished a decent fourth in the Porterstown Handicap Chase at Fairyhouse in December when rated 139. He’s now rated 136 but was beaten 9.5 lengths that day, six-and-a-half lengths behind HISTORY OF FASHION, who will be 9lbs worse off at the weights at Naas as he will be racing from 5lbs from out of the handicap.
VELVET ELVIS won a Rated chase at Fairyhouse last time on what was his first run for Gavin Cromwell. He won a novices’ handicap chase at Navan in March 2023 off 133 and is now rated 145 but should be open to further improvement.
Also on his first run for Gavin Cromwell, HARTUR D’ARC won at Fairyhouse last time out. He has yet to run in handicap chase but is surely open to further improvement.
Colm Murphy’s MACS CHARM has won four times from his last eleven runs and had been off for 233 days before his last three runs. Last time out he finished a respectable fifth (beaten 8 lengths) in the Thyestes Chase. His 2023 form is solid.
Pat Fahy’s STORMY JUDGE finished fifth in the 2022 Leinster National (beaten 22 lengths) and finished fifth in the Grand National Trial at Punchestown last time.
FAKIERA finished second in the 2022 Porterstown Handicap Chase at Fairyhouse when rated 128. He’s now rated 122 but his recent form is not so encouraging.
Every winner of the Leinster National since it became a €100,000 race in 2017 has been rated between 133 and 140, apart from Pairofbrowneyes (who was rated 146) in 2019 when completing back-to-back victories in the race for trainer Willie Mullins.
Michael J McDonagh’s POSITIVE THINKER is very consistent, having won three times and been placed on 10 occasions from his 17 races. He’s run well in being placed in handicap chases off 113, 117 and 119 in his last three races.
He’s still rated 119 but will have to race from 6lbs out of the handicap at Naas, although he will be racing in cheek-pieces for the first time.
Our Leinster National prices are available here
STATS
- There has been one winning outright favourite in the last 10 years – Venitien de Mai (10/3) for Jim Dreaper in 2016, although Diol Ker (7/2) was joint-fav when winning in 2022.
- Seven of the last 10 winners carried 10st 12lbs or less
- Seven of the last 10 winners were returned at 17/2 or shorter
- Six of the last 10 winners were returned at 11/2 or shorter
- Age of last 10 winners – 7yo (one win), 8yo (4), 9yo (3), 10yo (1) and 11yo (1)
- And as mentioned above, every winner of the Leinster National since it became a €100,000 race in 2017 has been rated between 133 and 140, apart from Pairofbrowneyes (who was rated 146) in 2019 when completing back-to-back victories in the race for trainer Willie Mullins.
VERDICT
In the last 10 years, the winner’s profile has been…
A horse aged 8 or 9, rated between 133-140, carrying 10st 12lbs or less and priced in single figures.
Based on the stats, MACS CHARM comes closest to fitting the bill.