It’s an excellent line-up for the six-furlong Group 1 summer feature of the British season, the Al Basti Equiworld Dubai July Cup, which carries £800,000 in prize money.
– July Cup latest odds (Saturday, Newmarket 16:35)
The runners
1 – Almeraq – Trained by William Haggas, he won the Group 1 Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot last time out on what was just his seventh start and his first run in a Group race. In that race, he beat Satono Reve, a dual Group 1 winner in his home country of Japan, by a nose. They meet again on the same terms on Saturday. Both are leading players here. Rating: 4/5
2 – Big Mojo – Trained by Mick Appleby, he finished second in this race last year before going on to win the Group 1 Haydock Sprint Cup. He has had two runs this year and should be sharper for them. He finished eighth, beaten 2.25 lengths by Mission Central, in the Group 1 King Charles III Stakes at Royal Ascot last time out, and they meet again on the same terms today. Rating: 3/5
3 – Comanche Brave – Trained by Donnacha O’Brien, he finished seventh behind Almeraq at Royal Ascot last time out, beaten 2.75 lengths, so will have to turn that form around to win. He also finished the same distance (bar a nose) behind Satono Reve in the same race. Rating: 2/5
4 – Double Rush – Trained by Andrew Balding, he appears to have come of age after winning his last three races, the most recent being the Wokingham Stakes at Royal Ascot. He steps straight from handicap company into a Group 1 race, which is a bold move, so he must be highly regarded by his trainer. Rating: 2/5
5 – Prince Of India – Trained by Marco Botti, he is rated 17lb inferior to Almeraq and Satono Reve, the joint-highest-rated horses in the race, so faces a tall order, even if first-time blinkers are likely to bring about some improvement. He previously won when fitted with a first-time tongue-tie. Rating: 1/5
6 – Quinault – Trained by Stuart Williams, he has yet to win above Group 3 level, although he has won over today’s course and distance. Now a six-year-old, he is an admirable gelding who has won 12 of his 35 races. However, he has come up short in his two previous Group 1 runs and faces the same prospect today. Rating: 1/5
7 – Satono Reve – See Almeraq. He looks to be one of the leading contenders, although seven-year-olds do not have a good record in this race. Rating: 4/5
8 – Coppull – Trained by Clive Cox, he won a Group 2 race as a juvenile and, on his first start this season, landed a six-furlong Group 3 race at Ascot. He then finished eighth, beaten 5.75 lengths by Venetian Sun, in the Group 1 Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot, a race in which Division was beaten three-quarters of a length when finishing third. They all meet again on the same terms today. Coppull probably ran below expectations there but, if so, he will need to prove that on Saturday. Rating: 2/5
9 – Division – Trained, like Almeraq, by William Haggas, he finished third, beaten three-quarters of a length by Venetian Sun at Royal Ascot last time out. That was a very good run and, being lightly raced, he should have more to come, although being drawn in stall one is not ideal. Rating: 3/5
10 – Mission Central – Trained by Aidan O’Brien, he came with a late run to land the King Charles III Stakes at Royal Ascot last time out, where Big Mojo finished eighth. He has won six of his nine races and is clearly on the up, but will need to improve a little further to give his trainer a sixth win in the race and a first since Ten Sovereigns in 2019, one of only four Irish-trained winners during that period. Rating: 3/5
11 – Venetian Sun – Trained by Karl Burke, she won the Group 1 Prix Morny against the colts as a two-year-old and proved she is as good as ever by landing the Group 1 Commonwealth Cup last time out, a race in which Division finished third and Coppull was eighth. She is clearly top class, although her trainer expressed slight concern in the build-up to the race after she came into season. She has won six of her eight races. Rating: 4/5
– Selections for Newmarket on Sat 11 July
Verdict
Venetian Sun looked a worthy initial favourite, but Satono Reve became favourite on Friday and connections will be very hopeful that he can reverse the Royal Ascot form with Almeraq, who has been weak in the betting. However, given that seven-year-olds do not have a good record in this contest, I’ll side with Almeraq to get the better of him again.
Fate of the favourites
In the last ten years, there has been just one winning favourite (Limato, 2016) and one winning joint-favourite (Shaquille, 2023). Four of the last six winners were returned at 11/1 or bigger, and just one of the last ten winners started at shorter than 9/2 (Shaquille at 5/2 in 2023).
Age
Six four-year-olds and four three-year-olds have won the July Cup in the last ten years. Looking a little deeper, seven three-year-olds have won the race in the last 20 years, while four-year-olds have been successful ten times over the same period. Two five-year-olds and one six-year-old complete the list, but the last horse aged five or older to win was the five-year-old Slade Power in 2014.
Of Saturday’s runners, Satono Reve is a seven-year-old. However, while the best finishing position achieved by a seven-year-old in the July Cup over the last ten years is third (from ten runners), none of those runners appeared to have as strong a chance as the Japanese raider does this year.
Draw
The following figures relate to the last ten runnings of the July Cup (most recent first):
Field size: 14 – 11 – 8 – 13 – 19 – 12 – 12 – 13 – 10 – 18
Winning stall: 15 – 11 – 9 – 14 – 4 – 9 – 12 – 12 – 6 – 16
Based on those figures, Venetian Sun (stall 9) and Satono Reve (stall 8) are slightly better drawn than Almeraq, although stall 4 for Almeraq should be perfectly acceptable.
