It was two successful arrows landed from three darts thrown by Kieran Burke in last week’s column. The LOI TV Commentator & host of Between the Stripes LOI podcast returns to cast his eye over the penultimate set of fixtures in this wonderfully unpredictable domestic season.
GALWAY UNITED v SLIGO ROVERS – Fri, 7.45, LOI TV
So from seven contenders we are now left with just four. Galway’s defeat to St.Patrick’s Athletic and Sligo’s home defeat against Bohemians last weekend means that neither of the Connacht clubs can now win the title with a top four finish and a potential place in Europe next season now the goal for these two sides.
Both teams have outperformed expectations this season no matter what happens from here but having gone this deep into the campaign still in the hunt for Europe, neither Galway or Sligo will want to allow their campaign to simply fizzle out.
There can be no shame attached to United’s defeat last Friday, it came against the in form team in the country and having only been beaten four times at home, a return to Deacy Park should be welcomed. Sligo Rovers 0-2 home loss to Bohemians was the greater shock given Bohs struggles this season but the Bit O’Reds thin squad was always likely to catch up with them and one couldn’t help but notice the glaring lack of an experienced striker in their XI last week.
Wilson Waweru has missed Sligo’s last three games and without him John Russell is relying on teenager Owen Elding who has failed to score in 20 league appearances this term.
Should Galway United’s season peter out, their record of 30 goals scored in 34 matches is likely to be a main contributing factor, only relegated Dundalk have scored fewer.
With two of the three H2H’s this season ending scoreless, the goals are not expected to flow in the West of Ireland on Friday night.
BEST BET: Under 2.5 goals (4/5)
ST.PATRICK’S ATHLETIC v DERRY CITY – FRI, 7.45, LOI TV
The stakes couldn’t be higher for this one. St.Pats must win and hope that Shelbourne don’t if they are to take the title race to the final day while a draw at Richmond Park and a win for Shelbourne at home to Drogheda would leave Shamrock Rovers as the only team who could still catch Shebourne with the Hoops not playing until Sunday, away to Dundalk. Got all of that?
The Monday afternoon market makes Derry City favourites for this game and I simply can not believe that! St.Patrick’s Athletic have won their last seven consecutive league games are are scoring goals for fun while playing some beautiful football.
Derry City have won just three of their last seven, drawing three times while losing in Drogheda and have look laboured and uneasy in recent months.
The Candystripes perfect record across the last five H2H meetings may be playing a part in the pricing of this contest but that previous form goes out the window here given St.Pats transformation since the end of their European run in late August. In fact. the Saints have won every game they’ve played since going out of Europe with a brave display against Istanbul Basakseir in the UEFA Europa Conference League play-off round.
Ordinarily, going into the lions den against an in form rival, you’d expect the visitors to be happy to take a point and move on but that isn’t an option for Derry City here given the title permutations so they are going to have to go toe to toe with the Saints here and I fully expect Stephen Kenny’s men to have too much for them on this occasion.
BEST BET: St.Patrick’s Athletic (9/5)
SHELBOURNE FC v DROGHEDA UNITED – FRI, 7.45, RTE 2
Damien Duff’s Shelbourne could take a seismic step towards the most unlikely of title successes with victory at home to Drogheda United on Friday night. The RTE cameras will be in town knowing that while Shelbourne can’t win the title on Friday, they can certainly put at least one hand on the trophy by defeating a Drogheda side who are now condemned to taking part in a relegation play-off.
Not only can the Drogs no longer escape such a fate following last week’s results but the Louth club also have more than one eye on the upcoming FAI Cup final against Derry City……..How up for this trip to Tolka will Kevin Doherty’s side be?
There is no lost love between Duff and Doherty, that’s no secret so perhaps the opportunity to scupper Duff’s title ambitions will be enough to see the Drogheda boss continue to go full strength here but it would only be natural if Drogheda lost a little bit of their bite and that’s something they really can’t afford to do.
This is a decent Drogheda team, they play some good football and have some really nice players but it’s their attitude and desire that has made them successful in staying up in recent seasons and indeed in reaching an FAI Cup final. If Drogheda are to lose even a few percentages from their usual workrate, it would effect them massively and that’s the fear here.
Shelbourne are very similar in many ways, they don’t have the same level of quality in their squad compared to the likes of Derry, St Pats and Rovers but they squeeze every ounce of effort they can from themselves week after week.
A six match winless run had left their title hopes in tatters but last Friday’s dramatic win at home to Waterford couldn’t have come at a better time with a route to the ultimate glory now clearly mapped out for Shels. Win their last two matches and they will be champions, one win will be enough should Rovers fail to win their last two and Derry and Pats hamper each other this Friday.
Shelbourne play Derry in a potential winner takes all contest on the final day of the season while a draw at the Brandywell that day could potentially set it up for Rovers to steal the league away on goal difference with a home victory against Waterford. All of that is simply permutations and rough estimates however, for now, all that matters is a home win on Friday and given the circumstances you’ll likely find yourself unable to back against the Reds, albeit at a very skinny price.
BEST BET: Shelbourne (11/20)
- A €20 Treble on Kieran’s three best bet selections could return €156.24