Stats and trends can often help when it comes to finding winners, not least at the big meetings, and Galway is no exception.
Main selections:
18:15: Silver Kiss
19:15: Inishfallen
19:45: Starborn Legend
Other races:
16:40: Magico – 17:10: Love Me Tender – 17:45: Stoneyford Lady – 18:45: Orandi/Genuine Article – 20:15: San Aer
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16:40 COLM QUINN BMW Novice Hurdle, Listed Race, 4yo+, 2m110y, €35,000
- Trainer Willie Mullins has won three of the last eight and four of the last ten
- There have been two winning-favourites in the last ten years, and no winning fav since 2020
- Seven of the last ten winners were returned at 8/1 or shorter
- There was a 22/1 winner last year, a 12/1 winner in 2023, and an 11/1 winner in 2022
Selection – Willie Mullins is once again your starting point so, sticking with the stats, it has to be Magico – Magico has been weak in the betting today (Tuesday). Gomez Addams and Lizzie Twigg have been vying for favouritism.
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17:10: Latin Quarter Beginners’ Chase, 4yo+, 2m2f54y, €17,000
- Harry Cobden rides the Grade 3 hurdle winner Love Me Tender, who is making his chasing debut
- Love Me Tender is one of three runners for Willie Mullins in the race; they include My Great Mate (Paul Townend), who has been off for 323 days; he won a bumper at the 2023 festival
- Willie Mullins has won two of the last five
- There have been four winning-favourites in the last eight years
- Eight of the last nine winners were retuned at 4/1 or shorter
Selection – The stats tell us that you need to focus on horses at the top of the market. Willie Mullins is the obvious starting point, with it being a close call between Love Me Tender and My Great Mate. We’ll side with Love Me Tender. **He was 10/3 overnight but, as at 9.30am on Tuesday, was 13/8 fav for this race.
17:45: COLM QUINN BMW Handicap Chase, 4yo+, 2m2f54y, €17,000
- Henry de Bromhead has won two of the last eight
- Five of the last nine winners have been returned at 11/1 or bigger
- There have been two winning-favourites in the last ten years, but no winning favourite since 2019
Selection – The Henry de Bromhead-trained Stoneyford Lady tick a few statistical boxes – Stoneyford Lady has been easy to back, 14/1 out to 18/1
18:15: COLM QUINN BMW Irish EBF Fillies’ Maiden (IRE Incentive Race), 2yo, €22,000
- Aidan O’Brien has won four of the last eight
- Five outright favourites and one joint-favourite have won in the last ten years
Some good fillies have won this race, including…
- The 2022 winner Tahiyra, who won the 2023 Irish 1,000 Guineas, Coronation Stakes and Matron Stakes, each of them a Group 1 race
- The 2018 winner Hermosa, who won the 2019 English and Irish 1,000 Guineas
- The 2016 winner Eziyra, who won a Group 2 race in 2018 and has subsequently produced the 2024 Epsom Oaks winner, Ezeliya
Selection – Aidan O’Brien’s Madam Secretary has shown promise on each start so far but has been drawn wide. Paddy Twomey runs a €380,000 newcomer, The Good Wife, and Joseph O’Brien runs a €350,000 debutante, Suomenlinna, but only two of the last ten winners of this race won it on their racecourse debut. Aidan O’Brien’s second runner, Haven, is also a newcomer. She is a daughter of Wootton Bassett and her grand-dam has produced the high-class Lope De Vega. However, Dermot Weld’s Silver Kiss showed plenty of promise when third on her debut at Fairyhouse and she looks a likely type for this. Her dam won at the festival in 2021. Dermot Weld won this race 13 times between 1990 and 2016, and again in 2022.
**Madam Secretary, despite her wide draw, was a strong favourite at 2/1 on Tuesday morning
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18:45: COLM QUINN BMW Mile Handicap, 3yo+, 8f123y, €120,000
- There have been two winning favourites in the last ten years, but the latest of them came in 2017
- Ado McGuinness won the race three years in a row with Saltonstall (2019 and 2020) and Sirjack Thomas (2021)
- Six of the last eight winners were returned at 11/1 or bigger
- The winning stall in the last ten years – 2, 1, 15, 19, 17, 12, 14, 18, 10 and 5
- Colin Keane has won the race twice in the last seven years, but he is away riding at Goodwood
Selection – A very tricky race. Ado McGuinness had the overnight favourite in Pierre Royal, who can go well but, sticking the with stats, e.g. 11/1 or bigger, drawn 10 or higher, we’ll suggest two against the field, which are Orandi, who looks reasonably weighted based on last year’s form, and Genuine Article, who won at the Festival last year and has never run badly at Galway.
Joseph O’Brien’s Hardy Warrior was 4/1 favourite as at 10am on Tuesday. He will race in first-time cheek-pieces, although no 3yo has won this race in the last ten years. Joseph, who had two winners on the opening day of the Galway Festival (yesterday), won this race in 2024 with Mexicali Rose.
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19:15: caulfieldindustrial.com Handicap, 4yo+, 7f, €18,000
- There have been four winning favourites in the last ten years, but three of these have come in the last four years
- Eight of the last ten winners were drawn in stall nine or lower
- Six of the last ten winners were returned at 6/1 or shorter, with seven of the last ten being returned at 8/1 or shorter
- Each of the last ten winners carried 9st3lbs or more in weight
- Eight of the last ten winners carried 9st7lbs or more
Selection – With a good draw and looking to be on a decent mark, Inishfallen gets the vote.
**Inishfallen, the overnight favourite, has eased slightly in the betting and, as at 10am on Tuesday, was 9/2 joint-favourite with the Ado McGuinness-trained Goal Exceeded. As the morning went on, another Ado runner, Eddie G became the favourite.
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19:45: Caulfield Industrial Irish EBF Maiden, 3yo+, 7f, €19,000
- There have been four winning favourites in the last ten years, but three have come in the last five years
- Nine of the last ten winners were returned at 9/2 or shorter
- The last six winners have been returned at 10/3 or shorter
- Trainer Dermot Weld has won three of the last ten
Selection – The stats tell us to look towards the top end of the betting for the winner. Johnny Murtagh’s Sindagan has yet to run a bad race and his turn will surely come. Almeiyda ran her best race to date when second at Roscommon when dropped in trip to 7.5f, and Jessica Harrington’s Punica Granatum can be fancied based on her best runs so far. However, the Joseph O’Brien-trained Starborn Legend was beaten a whisker at the Curragh over 6f last time and, with the step up in trip looking sure to suit, he gets the vote.
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20:15: Caulfield Industrial Handicap, 4yo+, 8f123y, €17,000
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- Two favourites and one joint-favourite have won this race in the last nine years
- The winning stall in the last 10 years: 5, 6, 14, 8, 7, 1, 19, 9, 11 and 7
- Mark Fahey won in 2022 and 2024
- Horses aged five or older have won six of the last eight, although 4yos have won the last two
- No winner in the last ten years has been returned at bigger than 12/1
Selection – Grey Leader is very well handicapped based on last year’s form and can go well if first-time cheek-pieces work the oracle, although his price of 18/1 stays outside of the best stats. Mark Fahey knows how to win this race, and his runner, Rhythm King, has dropped to a reasonable mark and ticks a few stats boxes. However, the nod goes to Ross O’Sullivan’s San Aer, a course and distance winner that looks to hold a good draw and has been popular in the betting on the day of the race.
