It may only be the opening weekend of the 2025 League of Ireland campaign but LOI TV Commentator Kieran Burke has already bagged some early profits in his weekly column following last Friday’s Presidents Cup. The Between the Stripes LOI podcast host now looks ahead to week one of the domestic season with a +3.88 profit bagged after both of his selections landed last week.
CORK CITY v GALWAY UNITED – Fri, 7.45, LOI TV
Only the champions Shelbourne had a better defensive record than Galway United last season but the Tribesmen weren’t exactly high scorers with only the league’s bottom side Dundalk scoring fewer than Galway’s paltry return of 33 goals scored in 36 league matches.
However, the Tribesmen warmed up for this league opener with a ruthless display against First Division outfit Longford Town last Friday as John Caulfield’s men hit De Town for six. While it goes without saying that United will meet far sterner opposition here, there are concerns about Cork City in defensive areas ahead of their return to the top-flight.
When the Rebels were last promoted in 2022 they went straight back down after conceding 64 goals in 36 league outings. That season Cork City had signed a lot of players unproven at LOI level and it showed and again City have had to dip into markets outside of the league to recruit.
Up front, Cork City are as well resourced as any team in the country with former Irish international Seani Maguire and fan favourite Ruari Keating both returning to Turners Cross last summer. The hope among Cork fans will be that that duos goals alone will be enough to keep their heads above water.
It could pay to be on the overs markets here when it comes to goals.
HOT STAT: Cork City recently defeated Sligo Rovers 6-3 in a pre-season friendly while Galway United were 6-0 winners last week away to Longford in a final warm up for this.
BEST BET: Over 2.5 goals (11/10) +2pt win.
ST.PATRICK’S ATHLETIC v DROGHEDA UNITED, Fri, 7.45, LOI TV
Generally, I will try to steer away from odds on shots in this column and instead look for other markets that might offer better value but St.Patrick’s Athletic (2/5) do look to be the banker on week one.
The Saints, who are 15/8 title favourites with Bar One Racing, have assembled a stacked squad and ended last season in unstoppable form to clinch a European place having looked like relegation candidates prior to Stephen Kenny’s arrival in May.
Pat’s also made it to the play-off round of the Conference League qualifiers last season where they put up a brave effort against Istanbul Başakşehir. The Dublin outfit showed a quality in those European matches that is a level above what many teams in the league are capable of achieving so should they replicate those performances at home in 2025 they have every chance of winning the title.
Drogheda United enjoyed a tremendous year last season as they secured another season in the top-flight and lifted a first FAI Cup since 2005. However, eaten bread is soon forgotten in this league and Drogheda are now among the favourites to go down this season.
Recent pre-season performances have been worrying with Drogheda appearing undercooked in defeats against Dundalk and Shelbourne. Drogheda barely registered an effort on goal across the two games let alone a goal. Douglas James-Taylor and Elicha Ahui are set to miss the start of the season through injury and without those two Drogheda wouldn’t have achieved what they did last season.
They’ve also lost the wrecking ball that was Frantz Pierott so scoring goals in the absence of the Haitian and James-Taylor could prove difficult.
St.Pat’s have spared no expense in preparing for the new season with Stephen Kenny’s charges treated to a warm weather camp where they played friendlies against some quality opposition such as Molde and Vancouver Whitecaps.
That prep should have the Saints fit and firing from the get-go (Do be aware that historically Stephen Kenny’s teams aren’t fast starters).
BEST BET: St.Patrick’s Athletic win to nil (13/10) +2pt win
SHELBOURNE v DERRY CITY, Fri, 7.45, Virgin Media 2
The VM cameras are at the home of the champions as the 2025 season starts as the last ended with a clash between the Reds and the Candystripes. Harry Wood’s late strike at the Brandywell in November is etched into the history of Shelbourne FC and the minds of its supporters forever more as the Englishman’s goal brought a first title to Ringsend in almost two decades.
The ramifications of that Wood goal spread far and wide with Derry City missing out on a European place as a result of that defeat while manager Ruaidhrí Higgins departed the Brandywell after Derry’s disastrous FAI Cup final defeat to Drogheda.
Former Larne boss Tiernan Lynch has been headhunted to turn City’s fortunes around and he has been backed with a raft of big-name signings in the off-season. Shane Ferguson, Liam Boyce (Hearts), Gavin Whyte, Robbie Benson (Dundalk), Carl Winchester (Shrewsbury Town) and Dom Thomas (Queen’s Park) have all arrived but the age profile of such signings has generated plenty of chatter.
At 28, Thomas is the youngest of the new recruits. It very much feels like an all in move by Derry City this season, a tactic I’m not sure will deliver the success they so desperately seek.
As for Shelbourne, they’ve already picked up a trophy this year thanks to an impressive display against cup holders Drogheda in last Friday’s Presidents Cup. While there won’t be too much change from last year to this in Damien Duff’s side the arrival of Fleetwood striker Mipo Odubeko has generated lots of excitement. Such anticipation has only been heightened by the strikers fine finish in the domestic curtain raiser last week.
Nobody had a better defensive record than the Reds last season, it’s the foundation their success was built off while they only lost three times in front of the raucous Tolka Park faithful. Derry City on the other hand only won five away matches last season so I was stunned to see the Foylesiders priced up as favorites for Friday night.
HOT STAT: Six of the previous eight H2Hs ended in draws.
BEST BET: Shelbourne draw no bet (23/20) +1pt win
TREATY UNITED v COBH RAMBLERS, Fri, 7.45, LOI TV
A meeting of two teams with starkly contrasting moods among their respective fanbases. Treaty United fans have aired their displeasure throughout the off-season over what they feel is a lack of investment in the Men’s First Team while Cobh Ramblers have been freely splashing the cash in a bid to challenge for promotion under new boss Mick McDermott.
Cobh’s near neighbors Cork City steamrolled the division last season on route to the title yet Ramblers have been able to sign several players from their County rivals in the off-season. Cian Murphy, Jack Doherty, Cian Bargary, Cian Coleman and Barry Coffey have all swapped Turners Cross for St.Colman’s Park and will bring a knowledge of how to get the job done at this level with them.
Meanwhile, players such as Niall O’Keefe (Waterford) and Shane Griffin (Shelbourne) have both dropped down a division to join this exciting new Ramblers project.
Treaty United can only dream at the moment of bringing players of that profile to the Markets Field and as a result, they could be in for a rude awakening in front of their disgruntled fans on night one.
For me, the market is totally wrong here with the away side as big as 9/5 to get off to a winning start here.
BEST BET: Cobh Ramblers (9/5) +1pt win
KERRY FC v FINN HARPS, Fri, 7.45, LOI TV
Another opening weekend contest I reckon the odds compilers have slipped up on. Kerry FC almost trebled their points tally in 2024 from their debut LOI season the year previous and with fresh investment recently announced at the Tralee club they are expected to make further progress in the coming years.
Finn Harps meanwhile have had to rethink how they operate in recent seasons following a bruising relegation in 2022. Stalwart manager Ollie Horgan left the club following the return to the second tier with Harps trying something very different with the appointment of former LOI-winning player Dave Rogers.
The Scouser assembled a mixture of promising young players and unknown signings from overseas but from very early on into his tenure it was clear the balance wasn’t right. Rogers left midway through 2023 with Darren Murphy taking up the reins initially as interim boss before being appointed full-time for 2024.
Under Murphy Harps showed steady improvement last season to finish just outside the play-off places in sixth but hopes of building on that have taken a hammering in the winter with the Donegal outfit losing a number of key players.
Tim Oliver-Heimir (Kerry), Ryan Rainey, Matthew Makinson, Noe Baba (Athlone Town) and star striker Success Edogun (Ballymena United) have all departed while their replacements are mostly loan signings looking for minutes or players unproven at this level.
A long trip to Tralee now awaits Harps on the opening weekend with Mounthawk Park a venue they have really struggled at since Kerry’s arrival into the league. Harps have won on just 1 of 4 visits to Mounthawk.
While Kerry haven’t exactly started to spend their new-found wealth in any extravagant fashion their most important piece of business this winter was to retain leading marksman Ryan Kelliher which they managed to do.
The former Killarney Celtic striker could do some damage on the opening weekend. From a value perspective alone Kerry are worth a punt at 8/5.
BEST BET: Kerry FC (8/5) +1pt win
Extra markets: 1-0 Kerry appeals to me at 6/1 – These have tended to be hard-fought encounters in recent years but Kelliher’s presence could be the difference between the sides).