Bundesliga Best Bets for Sat May 23rd

There is midweek Bundesliga football in Germany to look forward to

Bundesliga Previews for matches on Saturday May 23rd

Author: Will Reilly

It was a solid start with the selections last week, including a nudge in the direction of Bayer Leverkusen’s Lars Stindl, who delivered in what was one of our Double The Odds On First Goalscorer Bets matches.

This week’s Double The Odds matches can be found below.

 

Bar One Racing markets for this weekend’s Bundesliga matches can be found via this link

**This piece was initially published at 2pm on Thursday May 21st; prices were updated on Sat May 23rd at 6am

 

 

SC Freiburg v Werder Bremen, Sat 2:30pm

It’s seventh versus 17th (second bottom) in the table.

Freiburg are pretty solid defensively but, outside of the bottom three in the table, only two sides have scored less than their 35 league goals this season.

They returned from the break with a good 1-1 draw at Leipzig, who were strong favourites to win, but have won just three of their last 12 Bundesliga matches. Two of those wins came at home although their recent home league form is patchy, winning five and losing three of their last eight games.

They have, though, failed to score in just two of their league home games this season.

In their last eight league games, Freiburg have scored six goals, each of them coming from a different player.

Werder Bremen’s woes continued last Monday with a 4-1 home defeat to Bayer Leverkusen. They have now won just four and lost 15 of their 25 Bundesliga games so far this season. Their goal-difference is now minus-31 and they have scored just 28 league goals this season.

They are second-bottom in the table and have won just two of their last 20 league matches, both of them away from home. Furthermore, they have failed to score in seven of their last 12 league matches.

Also, their recent matches show a tendency to let in goals in the final half-hour, with nearly 1.5 goals on average being conceded in the last 30 minutes based on their last six league defeats.

They look particularly vulnerable when it comes to defending dead-ball situations and something needs to change quickly if they are to avoid relegation.

HEAD-TO-HEADS – The last ten Bundesliga meetings between these sides at Freiburg have ended 1-1, 1-0, 2-5, 0-1, 3-1, 1-2, 2-2, 1-3, 0-6 and 0-6, so Werder Bremen have a good record in it, although it is hard to fancy them based on their recent form

VERDICT:

Freiburg have a good chance of bagging three points against struggling opponents. I’ll side with them to win (23/20 when initially recommended, now 11/10) despite Werder Bremen’s good record in the fixture

 

 

SC Paderborn v Hoffenheim, Sat 2:30pm

It’s the team that is bottom of the table versus the team in ninth-place.

Paderborn have won just four and lost 17 of their 26 league games this season. They concede, on average, over two goals a game (54 conceded).

They returned from the break with a 0-0 draw at Dusseldorf, who are third-bottom in the table. They haven’t won for seven league matches now (2 draws, 5 defeats) but they have scored in eleven of their last 14 league matches, including in a 3-2 defeat at Bayern Munich. In nine of those 14 matches, both teams scored.

Their principal goal threat comes from Denis Srbeny. He has scored four goals in his last eight starts and will, I feel, certainly pose a threat in this type of game.

It seems a long time now since Hoffenheim won four games in five matches between December 17th and February 1st because, since then, they have drawn two and lost four league matches, including a 3-0 drubbing at home to Hertha Berlin upon the Bundesliga’s resumption.

Their coach will, of course, be looking for a positive reaction to that from a side that has conceded three-or-more goals in four of its last seven matches (all competitions).

Christopher Baumgartner poses a goal threat from midfield with four goals in his last 11 appearances.

HEAD-TO-HEADS – These sides have only met three times in the Bundesliga: in 2014-15, when Paderborn drew 0-0 at home and lost 1-0 away, and this season, when Paderborn lost 3-0 at Hoffenheim

VERDICT:

I feel that there will be goals in this game so over 2.5 goals is worth a look although 11/20 (4/7 when this piece was initially published) looks a little short. I’ll take a chance, though, about Denis Srbeny getting on the scoresheet. He’s 13/2 to score first and 19/10 as an anytime scorer

 

 

Wolfsburg v Borussia Dortmund, Sat 2:30pm

It’s sixth versus second in the table.

Wolfsburg returned from the break with a 2-1 win at 14th-placed Augsburg and have now won six, drawn three and lost only one of their last ten matches in all competitions. That sole defeat came in the Europa League.

That run will have been good for confidence but, apart from a home draw with 6th-placed Leipzig, whose form has faltered of late, their league wins came against teams 9th or lower in the table. Saturday’s opponents are a completely different kettle of fish.

Borussia Dortmund are on a good run, having won eight of their last nine league matches, their only defeat during this time coming at Bayer Leverkusen (4-3) on February 8th.

They are second in the table on 54 points, four points behind Bayern Munich, who they play on Tuesday May 26th in what should be a cracker of a game. Kick-off time is 5:30pm.

They returned from the break with a 4-0 win over city rivals Schalke. Teenage striker Erling Braut Håland added to his growing reputation by scoring a 13th goal in 12 appearances since he joined the club, many of them coming from the substitutes’ bench.

Dortmund achieved this win without the injured Emre Can and Axel Witsel and even left hot property Jadon Sancho on the bench. He had scored 13 goals in his last 18 Dortmund appearances going into the game.

HEAD-TO-HEADS – The last ten Bundesliga meetings between these sides at Wolfsburg have ended 0-1, 0-3, 1-5, 1-2, 2-1, 2-1, 3-3, 1-3, 0-3 and 1-3, so that’s seven wins for Dortmund, including the last four, and just one draw in those ten matches.

VERDICT:

For me – and the head-to-heads back this up – it’s Borussia Dortmund at 15/20 (they were 8/11 when this piece was initially published) to continue on their winning ways before entertaining league-leaders Bayern Munich on Tuesday in what should be a game to savour. I’d always favour Håland to score, such is the air of confidence that surrounds him. He’s 12/5 (he was 33/10 when this piece was initially published) to score first and 17/20 to score at anytime, such is the fear he now strikes into bookies.

DON’T FORGET that this one of our DOUBLE THE ODDS ON FIRST GOALSCORER BETS matches this weekend (see above)

 

 

Borussia Mönchengladbach v Bayer Leverkusen, Sat 2:30pm

What a match: 3rd v 5th.

Borussia Mönchengladbach returned from the break with a 3-1 win at 13th-placed Eintracht Franfurt and have now won six and lost just two of their last eleven league matches.

Both teams have scored in seven of their last eight league games and seven of the eight have produced over 2.5 goals. Four of them have produced over 3.5 goals.

Eight different players have scored for them in those eight matches with the eye-catchers being Lars Stindl (5 in 7) and Alassane Plea (4 in 7).

Bayer Leverkusen are finishing the season at a gallop with 13 wins, one draw and one defeat in their last 15 matches in all competitions.

They scored three-or-more goals in seven of the last ten of those games – including a 4-1 win at struggling Werder Bremen in their first match after the break – although clean sheets are tougher to come by with just two in their last 12 matches.

They have not gone behind within the first half-hour of any of their last nine league away games.

After a brace against Bremen – in which he brought up our Double The Odds On First Goal-scorer Bets offer – Kai Havertz is their man in form, with seven goals in his last nine appearances.

HEAD-TO-HEADS – The last ten Bundesliga meetings between these sides at Borussia Mönchengladbach have ended 2-0, 1-5, 2-1, 2-1, 3-0, 0-1, 3-3, 2-2, 1-3 and 1-1, so that’s 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats for the home side with ‘goals for’ being 17 and ‘goals against’ being 17 with the home side scoring in nine of the ten and the away side in eight of the ten. Seven of the ten have produced over 2-5 goals.

VERDICT:

I can see goals here so over 3.5 goals (23/20) is favoured and, if pushed for a score, I’d go 2-2 at 17/2 (9/1 when this piece was first published). If pushed for a goal-scorer, I’d go with Plea (anytime at 17/10 – 13/8 when this piece was first published)

 

 

Bayern Munich v Eintracht Frankfurt, Sat 5:30pm

It’s the league-leaders v the team in 13th that has lost 13 of its 25 league games so far this season.

This is the easiest of the Friday/Saturday games to call. Bayern, quite rightly, are hot favourites in what will be their warm-up match ahead of Tuesday’s eye-catching fixture, away to second-placed Borussia Dortmund.

They have won 15 and drawn one of their last 16 matches (all competitions) and have kept a clean sheet in each of their last five games. They have scored 17 goals in their last five Bundesliga matches.

Robert Lewandowski has had another remarkable season and, after getting the opener in their 2-0 win at Union Berlin last Sunday, has now scored 40 goals in 34 appearances this season.

Between January 18th and February 20th, Eintracht Frankfurt won five of their seven matches and lost just once. The story is not so rosy in six matches since then with four defeats and just one win, which came in the German Cup against struggling Werder Bremen.

Furthermore, they have conceded 14 goals in their last six matches in all competitions.

HEAD-TO-HEADS – The last ten Bundesliga meetings between these sides at Bayern Munich have all been won by Bayern by scorelines of 5-1, 4-1, 3-0, 1-0, 3-0, 5-0, 2-0, 4-1, 2-1 and 4-0. That’s emphatic, although, slightly bizarrely, Frankfurt won this season’s home fixture against Bayern 5-1. That said, Bayern were reduced to ten men after nine minutes following a red card for Jerome Boateng.  Robert Lewandowki has got four goals in his last four starts in this home fixture for Bayern, although he didn’t score in it last year.

VERDICT:

A comfortable win for Bayern, with my suggestion being 3-0 (6/1). The ‘No‘ option on Both Teams To Score looks reasonable at 20/21



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*Odds were correct at time of publishing the article