Cheltenham Festival facts, figures, trends, tips, Day Four, Friday, by Will Reilly

We are all set for the final day of the Cheltenham Festival,

Will Reilly highlights some stats and trends and offers some tips for the final day of the Cheltenham Festival

Cheltenham Races, Friday March 13th, the final day of the Festival, Cheltenham Gold Cup day

Previews by Will Reilly

 

1:30pm, JCB Triumph Hurdle (Grade 1) of £125,000 2m179yds

3 winning favs in the last 5 years; Ireland has won 4 of the last 6; 6 of last 10 winners were returned at 13/2 or shorter, although a 20/1 chance won last year (Pentland Hills), and a 33/1 chance in 2012; Nicky Henderson has won 3 of last 10, Gordon Elliott, 2 of the last 6

The strongest form this year has, it would seem, come from Solo, Goshen and Allmankind from Britain and Aspire Tower from Ireland

 

Bar One Racing markets for Cheltenham on Friday can be found here

 

2:10pm, Randox Health County Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) of £100,000 2m 179yds

Ireland has won six of the last ten; Willie Mullins has won four of the last ten; Harry Skelton has won the last two and 3 of the last 4; 6 of the last 11 winners have been 20/1 or bigger; only one winner in the last 10 has been returned at less than 10/1; there has been no winning-fav in the last 10 years; 6 of the last 10 winners carried 10st12lb or less, and the other 4 carried 11st1lb or more (Arctic Fire carried 11st12lb when winning in 2017); Paul Townend has won 2 of the last 5.

Willie Mullins’ Ciel de Neige’s run at Newbury in the Betfair Hurdle was very solid and he’s rated just one pound higher now; Dan Skelton’s Mohaayed won this race (rated 139) in 2018 and won a handicap when rated 145 later that year; he’s now rated 142 on his first run since a wind op. Trained by Nicky Henderson, last season’s Triumph Hurdle seventh Adjali will be running for the first time since a wind op. Willie MullinsAramon’s half-brother Aramax won on Wednesday’s Festival card.

 

 

2:50pm, Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) of £125,000 2m7f213yds

The last six winners have been priced at 50/1, 33/1, 16/1, 11/1, 14/1 and 33/1, with Ireland winning four of them. Ireland has won 6 of the last 11 ‘Albert Bartletts’; just 2 winning favs in the last 10 years; it’s a tough race for a novice; the age of the last 10 winners – 5 6yos, 3 7yos, one 5yo (Very Wood, 2014, Paul Carberry)

Ramses de Teillee (David Pipe) has thrived since a wind op and looks tough – a good quality for this race; remarkably, he finished second in the 2018 Welsh Grand National; Paul Nolan’s Latest Exhibition, of course, is also tough; Cobbler’s Way was beaten fairly comfortably by Latest Exhibition last time, but is not without his supporters. Willie Mullins runs three, including Janidil, who won a €100,000 two-mile handicap at Fairyhouse in December. Stable jockey Paul Townend rides Monkfish.

 

3:30pm, Bulmers/Magners Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase (Grade 1) of £625,000 3m2f70yds

Ireland has won three of the last four and four of the last six; three winning favs in the last 10; only 2 of the last 10 winners have been returned at bigger than 8/1 – Al Boum Photo (12/1, last year) and Lord Windermere (40/1, 2014). Al Boum Photo is back to defend his crown. Lostintranslation will be running for the first time since a wind op. Presenting Percy has already won at two Cheltenham Festivals. Delta Work will be looking to become the second Grade 1 BarOneRacing.com Drinmore Novice Chase winner to win the Gold Cup in the last five renewals following the success of Don Cossack in 2016.

 

4:10pm, St James’s Place Foxhunter Chase Challenge Cup of £45,000 3m2f110yds

Enda Bolger has won two of the last five; he runs the seven-year-old Staker Wallace, with Jamie Codd booked to ride; Hazel Hill won last year as the 7/2 fav and is back again, although no 12yo has won this in the last 10 years; only three 12yos have won since 1975 (Earthmover won aged 13 in 2004); Ireland has won 3 of the last 9, but not since On The Fringe in 2016; 7 of the last 10 winners were 15/2 or shorter – the others were 25/1, 16/1 and 33/1; three of the last 7 favs have won

 

 

4:50pm, Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase Challenge Cup (Grade 3 Handicap) of £110,000 2m62yds

Nicky Henderson loves to win this race, which is named in honour of his father, although he hasn’t won it since 2012; Paul Nicholls has won 2 of last 4; Ireland has won 3 of the last 7; there has been just one winning fav in the last 10 – Alderwood (3/1, 2013); 7 of the last 10 winners have been returned at 16/1 or bigger, including Croco Bay last year at 66/1 (he won when rated 139 and is now 144 but ran well at Doncaster last time in a light campaign so far)

Paul Nicholls’ Greaneteen has done nothing wrong over fences; he is set to carry 11st7lb; 5 of the last 6 winners have carried 11st or more to victory, although only one 6yo has won in the last 10 years

Great Field will be some sight over these fences if a switch to Jonjo O’Neill proves beneficial; Dan Skelton’s Adrrastos is admirably consistent and may not have finished improving yet; Ireland has won 3 of the last 7 (and 3 of the last 10)

 

 

5:30pm, Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Hcap Hurdle of £70,000 2m4f56yds

The Festival finale, named after one the sport’s great trainers; no winning favourite since Sir des Champs in 2011- but none of the last 6 winners has been returned at bigger than 14/1; Gordon Elliott has won 2 of the last 3; Willie Mullins has won two of last 6 and 3 of the last 9; Paul Nicholls has won 2 of last 7; conditional jockeys based in Ireland have won 4 of the last 5; market movers have been Gordon Elliott’s Column Of Fire and Gavin Cromwell’s Ilikedwayurthinking

 

Tips:

2:10pm – Goshen: He seems to have been a little bit underrated; his win at Ascot last time came despite the going, not because of it

2:10pm – Ciel De Neige: In a fiercely competitive contest, he can go well; his handicap form is solid

2:50pm – Ramses De Teillee: He is tough and will stay, which are good attributes for this race

3:30pm – Delta Work: Boasts Grade 1-winning form and the Fairyhouse BarOneRacing.com Winter Festival form has been showing up particularly well this week at the Festival

4:10pm – My two against the field: Billaway and Staker Wallace; the former is unexposed and Willie Mullins has been talking well of him, while Jamie Codd was booked for Enda Bolger‘s Staker Wallace a long time ago

4:50pm – Greaneteen: Whatever he does today, he looks to have a good future, barring injury

5:30pm – My two against the field: Column Of Fire and Ilikedwayurthinking, who both look to have been primed for this



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*Odds were correct at time of publishing the article