Royal Ascot 2019: Stats and Facts

More colour, style and top-class racing will be on offer at Royal Ascot on Wednesday

Will Reilly runs through some key recent stats and trends at Royal Ascot and gives his tips too

The final day of Royal Ascot, 2019 Saturday June 21st.

Tuesday’s selections produced one winner (Arizona, 5/2) and two seconds, Buildmeupbuttercup (6/1) and Elarqam (9/2) from five selections.

Wednesday’s selections provided two placed horses (9/2 and 7/2) from four selections but, as with Monday, the stats proved valid when it came to the effect of the draw on the Straight Track.

Thursday saw two winners (13/2 and Evens) and a second from four selections.

From four selections, Friday saw a second plus two horses (6/1 and 7/1) placed in the big handicaps. Thoughts on Saturday are listed below.

Here are our Royal Ascot markets for Saturday

 

 

 

Check out the extra-place races we have available on Saturday’s racing at Royal Ascot

 

 

Saturday June 22nd

Group 2 Hardwicke Stakes (4yo+, 1m3f211y), 3:40pm

Sir Michael Stoute has won this race six times in the last nine years, with Aidan O’Brien chipping in with two of the last nine

Five of the last favourites have won, with the other SPs being 9/2, 10/1, 12/1 and 8/1

Sir Michael Stoute has an impressive record in the Hardwicke Stakes

 

 

Group 1 Diamond Jubilee Stakes (4yo+, 6f), 4:20pm

There have been just two winning favourites in the last ten, including 1/6 chance Black Caviar in 2012

Aidan O’Brien has won two of the last nine (Starspangledbanner, 2010, and Merchant Navy, last year

Australia won in 2012 (Black Caviar, trained by Peter Moody) and the USA won in 2015 with Wes Ward’s Undrafted

Just one three-year-old has won in the last ten (Art Connoisseur, 2009)

The last winning favourite was Slade Power (2014, 7/2, Eddie Lynam), one of three Irish winners in the last nine years

Since 2012, the winner’s SP has been 1/6f, 11/1, 7/2f, 14/1, 7/2, 9/2 and 4/1

The draw of the first three home each year is: 2009 – 12, 14, 6 (14 ran) – 2010 – 21, 12, 16 (24 ran) – 2011 – 3, 7, 11 (16 ran, soft going) – 2012 – 15, 5, 11 (14 ran) – 2013 – 15, 8, 16 (18 ran) – 2014 – 4, 12, 6 (14 ran) – 2015 – 6, 15, 3 (15 ran) – 2016 3, 5, 6 (good to soft going, 9 ran) – 2017 – 3, 12, 15 (19 ran) – 2018 – 11, 8, 1 (12 ran)

 

 

Wokingham Stakes (Heritage Handicap), 3yo+, 6f), 5pm

No winning favourite since 2010 (Laddies Poker Two, 9/2f, the dam of Winter)

The SPs of the last seven winners (most-recent first) 33/1, 25/1, 10/1, 10/1, 9/1, 14/1 and 33/1

None of the last eight winners carried less than 8st13lb to victory

Five of the last nine winners have been aged five and three of the last ten have been aged four

There has been one Irish winner in the last ten, David Marnane’s Dandy Boy (2012, 33/1)

The draw of the first three home in the last ten years is as follows (the going was good or good to firm, unless indicated):

2009 – 4, 5, 7 (26 ran)

2010 – 31, 20, 28 (27 ran)

2011 – 11, 16, 15 (25 ran, soft going)

2012 – 15, 23, 16 (28 ran)

2013 – 22, 18, 15 (26 ran)

2014 – 27, 18, 12 (28 ran)

2015 – 21, 20, 3 (25 ran)

2016 – 28, 11, 26 (28 ran, good to soft)

2017 – 1, 6, 28 (27 ran)

2018 – 16, 8, 26 (28 ran)

 

Will Reilly’s selections for Saturday, the final day, of Royal Ascot 2019:

2:30pm – Aidan O’Brien and Ryan Moore have teamed up to win this three times in the last eight years, on each occasion the winner being the favourite. The stats, therefore point to them again and Lope Y Fernandez (5/4)

3:05pm – A number of horses meet again from Epsom’s Surrey Stakes on May 31st. Space Blues (11/4) won on that occasion an he can do the same again. Six of the last nine winners have been priced at 8/1 or shorter.

3:40pm – Given Sir Michael Stoute’s impressive record in the race (see above), Mirage Dancer (9/2) gets my vote. Six of the last nine winners have been priced at 9/2 or shorter.

4:20pm – Just one winning fav in the last six and two in the last seven. That said, five of the last seven were 9/2 or shorter. A horse that is fairly prominent in the betting but not the fav should go close. On that line of thinking, we’ll side with The Tin Man (10/1)

5pm – With no winning fav since 2010, with winners being priced at anything between 10/1 and 33/1, and with eight of the last nine having been drawn 11 or higher, I’ll side with Summerghand (drawn 15)(14/1) .

He is not far above a winning rating, goes well fresh and his jockey Danny Tudhope has already had a fine week at the Royal meeting. Also, he teamed up with today’s trainer David O’Meara to win this race two years ago with Out Do.

5:35pm – Ireland’s Gordon Elliott has won this twice in the last three years and Willie Mullins twice in the last seven, so Ireland’s runners have to be given plenty of respect. Just one winning fav in the last ten (Willie Mullins’ Simenon, 11/4), but the biggest-priced winner of the last ten years has been returned at 12/1, with seven of the ten 8/1 or shorter.

I’ll side, though, with the brilliant, irrepressible Frankie Dettori to crown what has been a memorable Royal week for him and land this marathon contest with Corelli (9/2), who may be unproven at the trip but is in the shrewd hands of John Gosden and will race in a hood for the first time.

 

 



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*Odds were correct at time of publishing the article