Alan Marron delves deep into the form book once again to highlight where he believes the value lies in Saturday’s £150,000 Northumberland Plate, which is run on the all-weather surface at Newcastle and is due off at 3:35pm.
NORTHUMBERLAND PLATE 2019
Newcastle takes centre stage in Britain this weekend for one of the highlights of the flat campaign, the Northumberland Plate, which is also referred to “The Pitmen’s Derby”.
It is run over an extended 2-mile trip and will have a mix of runners from both Flat and National Hunt codes. This race was first run way back in 1833.
I will take a look at some of the main trends and stats in recent years and then give a preview on two horses with live each-way chances.
It’s a very competitive race, but the ante-post plunge on Gibbs Hill opens up the market for each-way punters to come out in force and get some solid value.
- 15/17 Stall 14 or lower
- 15/17 Aged 6 or younger
- 10/17 Carried 8-12 or less
- 9/17 Returned a double figure price
- 8/17 Had two flat runs that season
WE ARE PAYING EACH-WAY ONE-FIFTH THE ODDS ON SIX PLACES IN THE NORTHUMBERLAND PLATE AND THIS WILL APPLY TO ALL BETS PLACED FROM 4PM ON FRIDAY JUNE 28TH
SPEEDO BOY – TRAINER, IAN WILLIAMS – JOCKEY, CLIFFORD LEE
Current odds: 12/1
This horse is at the top of my list for this race as he looks to have been really laid out for it and has some solid flat and National Hunt form to his name.
In terms of form, we just have to look at his last run, where he finished a very solid second behind Red Galileo over 1m 6f at Newmarket, form that has been franked since with his stablemate, The Grand Visir, going on to win the Ascot Stakes under Richard Kingscote at Royal Ascot.
Speedo Boy finished seventh in the Chester Cup but I don’t think the track or the ground suited him that day. He landed a nice pot at Cheltenham over hurdles back in November and he most definitely has a decent pot in him on the flat.
He has a nice racing weight today and is drawn nicely so should be able to slot in and come home well.
The double figure price for me is a little on the high side and it will be no surprise to see that shorten closer to race time.
SHABEEB – TRAINER, IAN WILLIAMS – JOCKEY, PAUL HANAGAN
Current odds: 28/1
Formerly trained by Roger Varian, this horse had his first run for the Ian Williams team when pulled up in the Chester Cup in May.
The ground was bottomless that day and I would excuse any horse that kind of run after a year off the track.
His form for Roger Varian was very good, to say the least, and, in his previous three runs, he had started favourite for each of them. He stayed on well over 1m 6f to win well under Jim Crowley on his last run for Roger Varian, and obviously had little niggles that kept him out after that.
I am aware that this is quite a speculative selection and that 50-1 is available, but, if Ian Williams can get him back to some form, he is a lightly-raced individual who could most definitely run on into a place, should he stay the trip.
He had Alqamar behind him in the Newmarket race, and Alqamar was also behind Speedo Boy in a race so the trainer should know exactly where he stands.
I will be very surprised if this horse goes off such a big price.