We are back with the British flat racing turf season this weekend with the Lincoln handicap run over the distance of 1m at Doncaster racecourse.
This is normally a very competitive race and we’ll look at the value angle in the race and see can we find some nice each way prices.
The stats and trends to this race have been key over the last few years
- 16/16 Aged 6 or younger
- 15/16 Carried 9-4 or less in weight
- 14/16 had won over 1m before
- 12/16 Drawn in stall 9 or higher
- 8/16 Rated between 95-99
This horse for me seems to be a bit of a plot horse for this race and has a very noticeable jockey booking in Jamie Spencer.
The owner purchased this horse and Blaklion who will contend next weeks Grand National. This horse has a rating of 100 and seems to be the type of animal who could progress off that mark.
If we take a look at one of his runs at Goodwood from last season where he ran off a mark of 102, he travelled extremely well into the race but carrying 10 stone just got the better of him close home and thus he was beaten two and a half lengths.
His wins early in his career have come on soft ground and while it wont be very soft tomorrow, a little rain could really help his chance. He is drawn in stall 16 and has the favourite for the race drawn right beside him in 17.
The pace angle to the race looks to be that side and I can see Jamie Spencer giving him a typical “Spencer” waiting ride and picking them off close to home.
As a two year old this horse had some really solid form in Group races when finishing third to Gustav Klimt in the Superlative Stakes at Newmarket and then finishing second and fourth in two strong sales races.
He then went on to finish a gallant sixth to US Navy Flag in the Dewhurst at Newmarket. He is very lightly raced and is the type of horse who could be in this race off a very lenient handicap mark.
His last run back in January was a very interesting one at Lingfield on the all weather, he kept on inside the final furlong and that was over 7 furlongs.
Whether he will actually get a mile that is the million dollar question but I think if he does he could be one of those well handicapped and could turn out to be a very big price.