With Sir Erec being a banker at the meeting for so many, this race is wide open for the places and as normal with recent previews I will delve deeper into the market to find some each-way value.
The Triumph Hurdle is a 4yr old novices only race and for that reason the market can fluctuate an awful lot before we get to the final day.
We will now look at some of the key trends that have dominated in recent years;
- 20/20 had run within the past 55 days
- 19/20 had won within their last three starts
- 15/20 either Irish or French bred horses
- 15/20 had previously contested a Grade One or Two
Tiger Tap Tap
Trained by the master of Closutton, Willie Mullins, this horse was very eye-catching first time out when beaten a neck by antepost favourite Sir Erec at Christmas.
I have watched Cheltenham previews online over the past few days and they have all complimented Ruby for the ride he gave on this horse that day.
For me I thought he was going to win but being a big baby and being raw just caught him out. Sir Erec was a bit more streetwise.
They then clashed again in the Spring Juvenile at Leopardstown but this time Sir Erec was even more impressive with Tiger Tap Tap short of room and finishing back in fourth. Being by Jukebox Jury this horse is bred to stay and for me I see the Cheltenham hill really playing to his strengths.
The market is very much one way traffic but I don’t think Tiger Tap Tap should be as big a price as he is. The betting-without market on the day will be fascinating and this is where I would be looking.
Sir Erec could win easily but don’t be surprised if the big white face of Tiger Tap Tap looms alongside close home.
— At The Races (@AtTheRaces) December 27, 2018
Quote from WP Mullins ;
“Tiger Tap Tap and Easy Game go for the Triumph Hurdle. Tiger Tap Tap certainly didn’t operate last time out.
A few of my four-year-olds didn’t improve from their first run to their second and maybe I was just too easy on them.
Now he had a very, very hard race at Christmas. I might have been to easy on him. I was hoping the run might have brought him on.
I’m hoping that’s not his form.”
Tiger Tap Tap at 12/1
The story of the small trainer going to Cheltenham and winning one of the big races is stuff of fairytales. For trainer John Mc Connell dreams may become reality.
As I have already mentioned elsewhere in previews, horses with double engagements are very hard to judge as to what race they will line up in.
This horse, in my eyes, can only line up here following his run in Naas last time out where we he was second, storming home to be beaten a nose.
Chosen Mate just repels the late lunge of the talented juvenile hurdler Hannon to take the Grade 2 Novice Hurdle at Naas pic.twitter.com/sfEp2kGh0j
— Racing TV (@RacingTV) February 24, 2019
He had previously won very easy in Musselburgh beating Liva who had previous experience. Hannon has done nothing but improve this year for me.
Chosen Mate is highly thought of in Gordon Elliott’s stable, so at the forecast double figure odds for this race, it is most definitely worth having a look.
Forecasts with Sir Erec and the betting without market is probably a sensible play into this race but we have seen shocks before with Countrywide Flame winning at 33-1 for John Quinn so don’t rule out another this year.
Hannon at 25/1