Escape from a Tardy Start
The 10 furlong claimer, the 5.30pm is a poor contest. Georgian Bay, Fern Owl and Alcatraz are all priced to be claimed at a modest €6,000 respectively, Reckless Lad €8,000. Not bad considering the likes of Reckless Lad has been fairly consistent this winter and is looking for his 10th course win this evening, though is getting on in years.
Reckless Lad has won over 10f this winter but all his form is at shorter, as is Georgian Bay and Sheisdiesel’s. The adjusted ratings after taking the claiming price into consideration are as follows; Georgian Bay 96, Fern Owl 90, Alcatraz 89, Reckless Lad 87, Sheisdiesel and Nazamee 80 and further back to the rest who look out of their depth here.
Fern Owl would be too much of a leap of faith though is interestingly priced, he is a Southwell winner. No harm having form there when track will be harrowed plenty / deeper in freezing conditions (I’m assuming) and the surface has said to be riding slower of late.
Alcatraz off a mini break is running over a suitable trip and if in the humour would find it hard to be out of the frame here. He often misses the break but once it’s not several lengths it shouldn’t be detrimental here. It will be interesting to see if his trainer Richard O’Brien blogs on his well being before tonight’s run. His candid thoughts can often be found on twitter at his page on the day of the race.
A snapshot of what it's like not to be a dentist….
Videography a bit so so. pic.twitter.com/rq33swG7Rx
— RichardO'BrienRacing (@RJOBracing) January 30, 2019
The Doyles had a memorable night here four week’s ago when Timothy trained a one two in a mile handicap, but the winner more importantly was ridden by his daughter Emma on her first ride. It was a creditable effort by Spanish Soprano in 2nd, who battled back to regain the lead in the dying strides only to be pipped at the post. It was also commendable considering the strong pace she was part of probably set it up somewhat for the stable mate.
Spanish Soprano tries to go one better tonight in a weak looking mares maiden, the 6.30pm on the card. Though only rated 63, the Lope De Vega filly looks a smashing each way bet in a race that lacks depth and big question marks among the principles.
Pampushka has been well backed on all three starts, even in a hot 4 year old hurdle last time out but has yet to win. She will be fav for relatively new trainer Ray Coady. Though a decent second last time here, that was over a 10 furlongs and before that she was held in 3rd on debut, including Stranagone in 2nd who re-opposes tonight.
Stranagone has some decent form in the book, like when 2nd here to a hot-pot of Ger Lyons at the start of November. She is a bit of a tearaway however and I worry she is regressing for Tracey Collins. Ben Coen does claim a valuable 5 pounds but I feel she is too short in the market and could set it up for my selection in the race.
Crest of a Wave ran a decent race here last week in 2nd off 58 but it much shorter in the market than Spanish Soprano despite being rated lower. Proud and Elated has talent, will almost definitely travel well but doesn’t finish out her race for Joseph O’Brien. A mile is certainly not what she needs, but sprint distances haven’t found the oracle yet either, a frustrating mare.
All that said, Spanish Soprano looks the solid each way option for a stable in form. Doyles had a couple of horses placed from four runners in the last fortnight and a one-two here 28 days ago.
— Racing TV (@RacingTV) January 4, 2019
The 7.30pm is a mile 45-65 handicap and plenty of familiar names re-opposing. The front end of the market here is easy to oppose in my opinion, Gougane Barra got a 9 pound hike for a win last time and needs everything to fall right, not all together trust-worthy and Gavin Ryan seemed to get a better tune out of Latchet on recent starts.
Crossingoz looks to turn tables with Latchet on their last meeting, but crucially has a better stall than 14 this time in 9 and is 3 pounds better off at the weights. Crossingoz looked all over a winner here a furlong out a fortnight ago but just weakened late on. He looks a fair price to come with a better timed run tonight and land the spoils for Conor Hoban and William Fitpatrick.
Potential at Prices
Jered Maddox and Flamboyant Fling both ran with promise on debut to suggest they have scope for much better on second start, especially hailing from yards which tend to improve their horses for experience. Jered Maddox wasn’t without some support on the morning of his maiden start and was always up against it when missing the break from a wide stall. The Marnane gelding however made ground in the straight to take third before weakening late on to finish fourth. Stall six, benefit of experience and Orr’s claim could see him involved in the 8pm.
Flamboyant Fling is just too big to resist each way as should improve for her second run for Michael Halford, unfancied for a promising enough debut at 40/1 and it looked like a step up to 7 furlongs tonight would suit.
The selection for the lucky last is Lily’s Prince. Garvan Donnelly’s 10 year old is hard to catch right but he travelled with great verve last time out and was unlucky not to get much room at the business end of the race when needed. Lily’s Prince hit the line hard when it was all over a fortnight ago. Donagh O’Connor takes 5 pounds off this evening and he draws another good stall in 4. There is plenty of pace on with the likes of Rag Tatter and Red All Star which should set up nicely for the sweet travelling, four time course winner to arrive late.
Alcatraz 5.30pm at 8/1
Spanish Soprano 6.30pm at 9/2
Crossingoz 7.30pm (4 Places) at 15/2
Jered Maddox 8.00pm at 11/1
Flamboyant Fling 8.00pm at 22/1
Lily’s Prince 8.30pm (4 Places) at 13/2