Recency bias is a real problem for sports betting. People will remember how the San Francisco 49ers pushed Green Bay until the final seconds before falling just short Monday night.
In reality, everyone has pushed Green Bay to the limit and only QB Aaron Rodgers’ heroics keep them in the game each week.
The LA Rams are clearly the superior team, but this is a boatload of points to give the home team. The Rams have covered their last 2 double digit spreads – but the 49ers are 4-1 against the spread (ATS) when being given 10 or more points.
Despite being the last unbeaten team in the NFL, the Rams are on a 3-game losing streak ATS – that’s the recency bias I’m paying attention to. The line has been fluid this week; take the 49ers with 10 points or more – consider Rams if less.
LA @ SF +12.5
If that sounds too close to call, consider these Bonus Picks. Cincy Bengals are 0-7 all-time on Sunday night games and meet Kansas City which is 6-0 ATS spread this year.
Why fight it? -Go large on KC.
What did London do to America to be forced to watch the Tennessee Titans play? The Titans not only didn’t score last week – they never even got close – gaining 100 yards on the day, a record low in the modern era.
The Chargers could be jet-lagged and still win this one.
It’s a good week for upping your wagers – remember, you can’t win if you don’t play.